Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

[NoThanksSir]

There is a situation developing with Tre Tucker that is going under the radar. Tucker is a FA this offseason, and while he leaves a lot to be desired in a #1WR after Bowers, he unfortunately is our best WR. I'm not his biggest fan by any means, but even if we take a WR with our 1st pick in 2027 we're still in a precarious situation if he were to walk in free agency. Rookie receivers, especially those taken outside of the top 10, are rarely immediate contributors. I'm skeptical that a Rookie+Nailor/Bech/etc. will produce better results than what we have now. This is even more pressing of an issue because Mendoza will be playing next year, and that is a god awful situation for our prized QB prospect to be walking into. I think even if we assume that first pick is a receiver, we need to consider that another move at WR will need to accompany that selection. That could be re-signing Tucker, going after a more expensive #1, or seeking out a veteran bandaid while a rookie receiver develops. Of course there is option D, none of the above. Which I personally think would be a recipe for disaster, as the other talent on this roster hasn't shown enough potential.

2027 FA WRs

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These are the options other than Tucker in 2027. One important thing to note, is that the only players on the list younger than Tucker are Marvin Mims and George Pickens (By 4 days). My theory is that Tucker is going to have a lot more interest than any of us realize, and might be more coveted by another team than he is by us. Right now Tucker is on pace for a career year. If he continues his average of 59 yards a game, he can reasonably finish the season around 1K yards. While I feel like he leaves a lot to be desired as a player, if we compare him to someone who recently signed a contract with similar career numbers, what could we learn about Tucker's value?

Control Group: Tre Tucker

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Ex 1: Michael Wilson, Cardinals, 26 Yrs old

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Last offseason Wilson signed a 3yr, $75 mill extension at an APY of $25mill a year. His age and numbers are very similar to Tucker's. On top of that, both players are having very similar years in 2026, you could argue Tucker is playing quite a bit better. But let's assume Wilson's contract is a product of a poor Cardinal's org. Let's move on to another example.

Ex 2. Christian Watson, Packers, 27 Yrs old

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Watson also signed an extension last year, this one at an APY of $23mill a year. His career production is similar to Tucker, he seems to be a better red zone player than Tucker is.

Ex. 3 Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars, 30 Yrs old

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This last comp is more of a stretch, but valid because he was in the building and we moved on from him due to a perceived lack of value when it came to a contract extension. I would argue Jakobi Meyers's $20 mill APY is Tucker's floor. I was one of the loudest when it came to Jakobi not being worth what he was going to get paid, and I think the greater conclusion to make here is that mid level WR's are being paid handsomely across the board for very little on field production. Tucker is currently outperforming Meyers in 2026.

So now we have established the general range for Tucker's comps are between $20-25 mill a year. If we decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze, it's worth taking a look at more expensive options while we're at it.

Ex. JSN, Drake London, & Zay Flowers

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All three of these players recently signed contracts at the following APYs ($42.2, 35.2, 35). The main two high end receiver targets for this upcoming offseason (If they hit the open market) will be Nacua and Pickens.

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London and Zay aren't remotely on the same level as Nacua or Pickens. I think JSN is the rare example of a guy setting the market and then defending his position as the #1, as he's clearly still the best WR in the league. Those other guys set the floor at $35.2 mill, but both Nacua and Pickens will probably be more in line with JSN's $42.2. So a roughly $18 mill price difference from Tucker's group.


There are some guys in between those two groups who might be worth a look as budgetary options, especially those older than Tucker. But I thought this would be an interesting enough way to kick off the discussion by showing what the WR market is looking like right now, so that we could reasonably put into context what it will cost us to improve the position next year. Is simply drafting a WR a good enough plan in 2027? Do you want to keep Tucker? Or maybe sign someone else?

[Attyla]

We're f[raiders_icon]cked. I mean, what are we going to do? Can't draft an impact player. Can't sign an impact player. Won't trade for an impact player. Might as well cut everyone and start from scratch.

[DanKD]

Im not worried about Tucker. He is our best receiver but hes not worth huge money. Id be happy to resign to a reasonable contract or let walk and replace if he wants WR1 money

[Attyla]

Wait, I know....if only there were a group of people, who watched players both college and pro. Wait wait, what if they had video equipment and could film these players. And, wait, they could use evaluation tools to evaluate, wait, like players. And what if that group of people, let's call them Playerwatchers, could go to some guy, we could call him the Head Playerwatcher. And then he could make the best available decision and maybe give him a checkbook so he could, wait wait, pay the best available player. And wait, it gets even better, the guy who stands on the sidelines was able to give his opinion as well....I think I am on to something here. I will be back, I am going to make some calls and pitch my idea.

[Raidernation1979]

Not a huge fan of top 10 receivers. This is top 10 receivers over the last 10 drafts. Very few of the guys routinely talked about as top 10 guys broke out their rookie year. I’d keep Tre and keep drafting. I might also see if Cincy want to come off tee Higgins.

Only one on the list below is ever talked about as a top receiver. That’s chase.


2024 Marvin Harrison Jr. #4 Arizona Cardinals Ohio State
2024 Malik Nabers #6 New York Giants LSU
2024 Rome Odunze #9 Chicago Bears Washington
2022 Drake London #8 Atlanta Falcons
USC
2022 Garrett Wilson #10 New York Jets
Ohio State
2021 Ja'Marr Chase #5 Cincinnati Bengals LSU
2021 Jaylen Waddle #6 Miami Dolphins Alabama
2021 DeVonta Smith #10 Philadelphia Eagles

[FLORIDARAYDAH]

As thin as we are Im sure we will try to keep Tucker. As long as he doesn't want crazy money. If so let him go. It would be nice to have one less hole to fill but he is not the kind of guy you over pay

[Attyla]

As thin as we are Im sure we will try to keep Tucker. As long as he doesn't want crazy money. If so let him go. It would be nice to have one less hole to fill but he is not the kind of guy you over pay

Tucker to me is the least of our concerns going into the next off season. Fixing our run blocking is way way further up the line than Tucker. Fixing the rest of the defense is way way further up the line than Tucker. We will have some money available but we have been we are third in pass yards per game and Tre is averaging less than 60 yards per and a half a TD per game. This is not some guy we should throw a bunch of money at.

[NoThanksSir]

Im not worried about Tucker. He is our best receiver but hes not worth huge money. Id be happy to resign to a reasonable contract or let walk and replace if he wants WR1 money

I'm not a huge fan of his game but when I look at other players and their contracts I'm beginning to think he isn't the worst option at 25/yr

[Jeevo]

Thanks for the info. Paying Tucker in the $20s seems crazy at first look but the WR market has completely reset the last couple of years. Still not in love with paying him but the free agent list is old guys and players who have never actually put it together, outside of a couple of guys maybe. Not a pretty picture.

PS - Getting picky, but I don't personally put Pickens into the top group or groups and would rather have Zay or London.

[NoThanksSir]

Tucker to me is the least of our concerns going into the next off season. Fixing our run blocking is way way further up the line than Tucker. Fixing the rest of the defense is way way further up the line than Tucker. We will have some money available but we have been we are third in pass yards per game and Tre is averaging less than 60 yards per and a half a TD per game. This is not some guy we should throw a bunch of money at.

I agree with a lot of what you said here. We have a topic about OL and defense, figured we're getting to the trade deadline and the hopes of a Lombardi are fading so why not discuss something else?

This is the beauty of a hard cap. You need 22 good and/or great players to win a Superbowl, and you can't pay them all. I think OL and defense have some glaring issues but many folks are uncomfortable with WR and if Tucker walks we'll get weaker there. I was of the mind we let him walk, and draft a replacement. But I have to admit I don't like any of the other veteran options available, so we might take a momentary step back

[Attyla]

Thanks for the info. Paying Tucker in the $20s seems crazy at first look but the WR market has completely reset the last couple of years. Still not in love with paying him but the free agent list is old guys and players who have never actually put it together, outside of a couple of guys maybe. Not a pretty picture.

PS - Getting picky, but I don't personally put Pickens into the top group or groups and would rather have Zay or London.

What these things never take into consideration is the number of guys who will be cut for cost saving moves. WR2 is not that big an issue. We will field a team that has one and we will draft our WR1 and even if his impact year one is not on par with expectation, we still have plenty of pass catchers

[NoThanksSir]

Thanks for the info. Paying Tucker in the $20s seems crazy at first look but the WR market has completely reset the last couple of years. Still not in love with paying him but the free agent list is old guys and players who have never actually put it together, outside of a couple of guys maybe. Not a pretty picture.

PS - Getting picky, but I don't personally put Pickens into the top group or groups and would rather have Zay or London.

Yea I'm not sure about the best path forward, and was curious what other folks thought but wanted to establish some kind of baseline for what Tucker is worth. And I'm not as high on Zay or London but agree Pickens has major baggage as a high end FA, but he's worth mentioning when talking financials as he will factor into how the 2027 market is set

[Attyla]

I agree with a lot of what you said here. We have a topic about OL and defense, figured we're getting to the trade deadline and the hopes of a Lombardi are fading so why not discuss something else?

This is the beauty of a hard cap. You need 22 good and/or great players to win a Superbowl, and you can't pay them all. I think OL and defense have some glaring issues but many folks are uncomfortable with WR and if Tucker walks we'll get weaker there. I was of the mind we let him walk, and draft a replacement. But I have to admit I don't like any of the other veteran options available, so we might take a momentary step back

If we draft at around 12 like some projections have us at, Charlie Becker should be there, at worst Cam Coleman will be there. Both guys are able to impact games immediately.

[NoThanksSir]

If we draft at around 12 like some projections have us at, Charlie Becker should be there, at worst Cam Coleman will be there. Both guys are able to impact games immediately.

On a team that features two tight ends, and already has a possession receiver in Bech, I don't see Becker as an obvious upgrade over Tucker. I think Tucker could have a better 2027 than him. Doesn't seem like a fit for us tbh. Coleman is interesting but I still think relying on guys like him or Becker to produce is a recipe for disaster. This is the value of retaining Tucker

[DeathStar24]

Dogshit list of free agents. Most of em in their 30's. Draft is the probably the way to go. Build something with Mendoza, Jeanty/Washington and Brock/Meyer.