Fernando Mendoza Welcome To Las Vegas

[Sold My Soul]

Call your shot....or add your own.

Dante Moore:

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Dante-Moore-QB-UCLA

Fernando Mendoza:

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Fer ... California

May the football godz look kindly down upon the feeble and inept.

[GoodTimeCharlie]

Josh Allen 6’5” 237 lbs
Mendo 6’5” 236 lbs

f[raiders_icon]ck yeah!

[Attyla]

Seek help

I leave for 10 minutes.....

[haji81872]

That is 11 pounds of pure muscle. He looks great.

[haji81872]

Good stuff from ESPN on Mendoza. (Shocking I know). Pretty much agree.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana Hoosiers

Raw 2024-25 stats: 27 starts, 538-for-765 passing, 6,539 yards, 70.3% completion rate, 57 TDs, 1.6% INT rate, 7.9% sack rate, 52% success rate, 7.5 yards per dropback, 111 non-sack rushes for 784 yards and nine TDs
Total QBR rank (out of 84): seventh (79.4)

Why he might succeed: He just keeps improving. I like the approach of using two years of data for a piece like this because it gives us a broader sample and takes away the impact of a shorter hot (or cold) streak. But when it comes to Mendoza, it's not so much that he got hot in 2025 -- it's that he kept getting hotter all season.

If we break Mendoza's 35 college starts -- 19 in two years at California, then 16 in one season at Indiana -- into chunks, we get the profile of a guy who was not yet to his ceiling when he left college.

• Starts 1-15: 60.4 Total QBR, 65.2% completion rate, 6.3 yards per dropback
• Starts 16-20: 70.9 Total QBR, 68.4% completion rate, 7.0 yards per dropback
• Starts 21-25: 88.1 Total QBR, 74.6% completion rate, 9.0 yards per dropback
• Starts 26-30: 91.8 Total QBR, 75.2% completion rate, 8.8 yards per dropback
• Starts 31-35: 92.4 Total QBR, 69.3% completion rate, 7.6 yards per dropback

His last five games included Indiana's Big Ten championship game win over top-ranked Ohio State and College Football Playoff wins over Alabama, Oregon and Miami; you'd expect the raw numbers to falter a bit against such a high level of competition, and they did, but his opponent-adjusted Total QBR kept rising.

Honestly, watching Mendoza in 2025 was like watching a guy master a video game. He'd make a mistake, internalize it, and never make it again. Even one of his worst performances became one of his best moments when he led an incredible, 80-yard two-minute drill, complete with four utterly perfect throws, to pull off an escape against Penn State.

By the end of the season, Mendoza was showing almost robotic timing and accuracy and was placing nearly every pass where only his receivers could catch it, often perfectly on their back shoulder. And in his last six college games, he completed 74% of his passes with 15 TDs to only one interception. He even showed a willingness to fight for yards himself: In the games in which his passing wasn't perfect, he was happy to take off running. He scrambled five times for 35 yards in a tight win over Iowa and seven times for 74 yards in CFP wins over Alabama and Oregon, and his most famous play in Indiana's title game win over Miami also happened with his legs:

He was so good that though his two-year numbers were certainly strong, it was easy to decide that a full, two-year sample didn't really apply to him -- it mattered only what he looked like at the end.
Why he might fail: He's going to take a lot of hits. Mendoza's ability to learn from mistakes was otherworldly, but when a team was able to pressure him, it could surprise him a bit.

The national average for the ratio of sacks to pressures was 17.2% in 2024-25 -- meaning, basically one in six pressures turned into sacks on average -- but Mendoza far exceeded that (in a bad way) both years. His ratio was 25.3% as he took 41 sacks at Cal in 2024, and though he was protected far better at Indiana in 2025 (his pressure rate fell from 38.4% to 28.3%), he still took 25 sacks with a 22.5% sacks-to-pressures ratio.

And for all the stats that got better down the stretch, this one didn't: In his final seven games of 2025, he was sacked 18 times (a massive 10.4% sack rate) with a 30.5% sacks-to-pressures ratio. This is important because while your college stats don't always follow you to the NFL -- we can generally say that you won't top your college rate stats, but we can't say how close you will get to them -- that sacks-to-pressures ratio is pretty sticky. It follows you more than most stats do.

Granted, a couple of other recent No. 1 picks bucked this trend a bit. Among No. 1s, Mendoza's ratio isn't that far from that of Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray, and they haven't suffered egregiously terrible sack rates in the pros. They're far more elusive, though: more pocket-based No. 1 picks such as Joe Burrow and Cam Ward have indeed been hit a lot.

With Mendoza going to a Raiders team that went 3-14 last season and saw Geno Smith sacked 55 times, it's safe to say he could take a ridiculous number of hits in 2026 and, perhaps, beyond. There's nothing saying he won't learn and adapt as he has to everything else -- it's his strongest trait -- but taking too many hits can wreck a QB's development like almost nothing else, and it's something Mendoza will have to prove he

[RunOverByHubbard]

Two new stories about Mendoza from CBS Sports both worth reading. First, after his Pro Day, how he stacks up against past 1st round QBs:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... 1-ranking/

Second, comparing Mendoza and Simpson and this analysis says Simpson is not far behind and will be picked pretty high up.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... o%20career.

[chucker]

[DanKD]

Clearly they plan to sit him down and break it to him that they plan to pass on him in the draft in order to give Cousins a new wide receiver

[Raidernation1979]

This is likely so they can give him his locker and keys to his new Vegas home

[mstrbass2000]

That is 11 pounds of pure muscle. He looks great.

dudes legs looked cut up and his upper body look much more defined ...kids really getting prepared for the n.f.l

[mstrbass2000]

This is likely so they can give him his locker and keys to his new Vegas home

dont forget the country club membership

[mstrbass2000]

Josh Allen 6’5” 237 lbs
Mendo 6’5” 236 lbs

f[raiders_icon]ck yeah!

i think fernando is gonna surprise a lot of people with his running ability . kids a long strider and will fight for yds

[mstrbass2000]

FNF NFL
@fnfantasyleeg
·
Apr 1
Fernando Mendoza Scouting Report

Grade: A+

Prospect Rating: Elite

Profile:

QB, Indiana, 6’5” 235 lbs

Pros:

-Has good arm strength, can put a lot of velocity on the ball and drive the ball into small windows.

-Consistent rotational sequencing, Mendoza transfers energy from the ground up to generate maximum power and accuracy on throws.

-Mobile quarterback, has very good agility at 6’5” and can make plays as a runner or throwing on the run.

-Pro-ready processor pre-snap and post-snap, breaks down the defense on every play.

-No injury concerns, missed only one game for his entire collegiate career and it was due to illness.

-Accurate and precise passer, 72.0% completion percentage in 2025.

-Throws a beautiful ball on slant routes.

-Not turnover prone, does not put the ball in harms way despite being heavily reliant on contested throws.

-Has all the intangibles: command of the huddle; calm under pressure; great work ethic; studies film; can adapt to different schemes; natural leadership and strong body language; upstanding character.

-Great pocket discipline and improving at sensing pressure. Navigates the pocket well.

-Went undefeated and won the Heisman and National Championship at a historically non-football school. Also elevated an offense at California that was devoid of playmakers. Cal has not even had an offensive player drafted since 2017.

Cons:

-After breaking the defense down pre-snap, he frequently locks-on to his go-to read. He doesn’t manipulate the defense with his eyes or a head fake and this makes the throw more contested than it needs to be.

-When he’s fooled by a disguise and then forced to scan the entire field and go to his 3rd or 4th progression, he gets flat-footed and his accuracy dips.

-A strong bull-rush is his worst nightmare. When the interior of the pocket collapses and he’s under pressure, his throws lose velocity and he becomes turnover prone.

-While he’s elite at back-shoulder throws and completing intermediate passes on comeback routes, he’s very reliant on those plays. A strong press corner can interrupt the timing and force a coverage sack (easier said than done).

-Takes too many sacks in general. He’s improving and he often gets the ball out quickly, but he still trusts his protection too much.

-Played a lot of RPO in college. In the NFL, RPO is rising, but it’s still only used on 10-12% of snaps.

-Mendoza is an accurate passer deep, but his deep ball is a lofty ball with a lot of air: he just doesn’t have the arm strength to drive it with a lot of speed and velocity. He can make up for this with great mechanics, touch, and timing. But there have been only 4-5 prospects (Elway, Lawrence, Luck, Stafford, Mahomes) ever with elite deep ball accuracy (emphasis on accuracy) and high velocity (60 mph, 70+ yards, in the field of play).

Conclusion:

Mendoza’s high IQ play immediately puts him in the ballpark with quarterbacks like Bryce Young and Andrew Luck. He then has the physical size and athletic traits similar to Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. And the closest modern comparison to Mendoza’s run at Indiana has to be Joe Burrow.

He doesn’t have the superstar flash and physical tools of prospects like Caleb Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson, Cam Ward, and Trevor Lawrence, but he’s got every skill necessary to become an all-pro caliber quarterback. If Mendoza eventually becomes the best quarterback in the league, I will not be surprised. I see Fernando Mendoza as a future top-5 QB in the league.

[Nor_Cal_Raider]

The good defenses we face this year

SD twice
Den twice
KC twice - still have a great dc
NE
Buff
Jets can glenn get them built
Rams
Sea
SF will they stay healthy

I see why they may want to give FM some time to adjust

[Raidernation1979]

[SkullCrusher]

Cons:

-After breaking the defense down pre-snap, he frequently locks-on to his go-to read. He doesn’t manipulate the defense with his eyes or a head fake and this makes the throw more contested than it needs to be.

-When he’s fooled by a disguise and then forced to scan the entire field and go to his 3rd or 4th progression, he gets flat-footed and his accuracy dips.

-A strong bull-rush is his worst nightmare. When the interior of the pocket collapses and he’s under pressure, his throws lose velocity and he becomes turnover prone.

-While he’s elite at back-shoulder throws and completing intermediate passes on comeback routes, he’s very reliant on those plays. A strong press corner can interrupt the timing and force a coverage sack (easier said than done).

-Takes too many sacks in general. He’s improving and he often gets the ball out quickly, but he still trusts his protection too much.

-Played a lot of RPO in college. In the NFL, RPO is rising, but it’s still only used on 10-12% of snaps.

-Mendoza is an accurate passer deep, but his deep ball is a lofty ball with a lot of air: he just doesn’t have the arm strength to drive it with a lot of speed and velocity. He can make up for this with great mechanics, touch, and timing. But there have been only 4-5 prospects (Elway, Lawrence, Luck, Stafford, Mahomes) ever with elite deep ball accuracy (emphasis on accuracy) and high velocity (60 mph, 70+ yards, in the field of play).

(I know these aren't your words, but a scouts)

This first con could be a pro, that's why you read pre-snap to know who your target likely is. Brady gives thumbs up!

Ok

Strong bull rush is every QB's nightmare, pressure up the middle has always been the best pressure.

We'll see how it goes with elite CB's, most teams don't have two if that is really an thing.

He's found a home! We need to protect him A1.

Yep the transition to the pro's always a thing.

When I think accurate deep ball throwers, Lawrence comes to mind? I would think one missed is Burp Fart.