Tre Tucker & the WR Situation
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NoThanksSir
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Tre Tucker & the WR Situation
There is a situation developing with Tre Tucker that is going under the radar. Tucker is a FA this offseason, and while he leaves a lot to be desired in a #1WR after Bowers, he unfortunately is our best WR. I'm not his biggest fan by any means, but even if we take a WR with our 1st pick in 2027 we're still in a precarious situation if he were to walk in free agency. Rookie receivers, especially those taken outside of the top 10, are rarely immediate contributors. I'm skeptical that a Rookie+Nailor/Bech/etc. will produce better results than what we have now. This is even more pressing of an issue because Mendoza will be playing next year, and that is a god awful situation for our prized QB prospect to be walking into. I think even if we assume that first pick is a receiver, we need to consider that another move at WR will need to accompany that selection. That could be re-signing Tucker, going after a more expensive #1, or seeking out a veteran bandaid while a rookie receiver develops. Of course there is option D, none of the above. Which I personally think would be a recipe for disaster, as the other talent on this roster hasn't shown enough potential.
2027 FA WRs These are the options other than Tucker in 2027. One important thing to note, is that the only players on the list younger than Tucker are Marvin Mims and George Pickens (By 4 days). My theory is that Tucker is going to have a lot more interest than any of us realize, and might be more coveted by another team than he is by us. Right now Tucker is on pace for a career year. If he continues his average of 59 yards a game, he can reasonably finish the season around 1K yards. While I feel like he leaves a lot to be desired as a player, if we compare him to someone who recently signed a contract with similar career numbers, what could we learn about Tucker's value?
Control Group: Tre Tucker
Ex 1: Michael Wilson, Cardinals, 26 Yrs old
Last offseason Wilson signed a 3yr, $75 mill extension at an APY of $25mill a year. His age and numbers are very similar to Tucker's. On top of that, both players are having very similar years in 2026, you could argue Tucker is playing quite a bit better. But let's assume Wilson's contract is a product of a poor Cardinal's org. Let's move on to another example.
Ex 2. Christian Watson, Packers, 27 Yrs old
Watson also signed an extension last year, this one at an APY of $23mill a year. His career production is similar to Tucker, he seems to be a better red zone player than Tucker is.
Ex. 3 Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars, 30 Yrs old
This last comp is more of a stretch, but valid because he was in the building and we moved on from him due to a perceived lack of value when it came to a contract extension. I would argue Jakobi Meyers's $20 mill APY is Tucker's floor. I was one of the loudest when it came to Jakobi not being worth what he was going to get paid, and I think the greater conclusion to make here is that mid level WR's are being paid handsomely across the board for very little on field production. Tucker is currently outperforming Meyers in 2026.
So now we have established the general range for Tucker's comps are between $20-25 mill a year. If we decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze, it's worth taking a look at more expensive options while we're at it.
Ex. JSN, Drake London, & Zay Flowers All three of these players recently signed contracts at the following APYs ($42.2, 35.2, 35). The main two high end receiver targets for this upcoming offseason (If they hit the open market) will be Nacua and Pickens.
London and Zay aren't remotely on the same level as Nacua or Pickens. I think JSN is the rare example of a guy setting the market and then defending his position as the #1, as he's clearly still the best WR in the league. Those other guys set the floor at $35.2 mill, but both Nacua and Pickens will probably be more in line with JSN's $42.2. So a roughly $18 mill price difference from Tucker's group.
There are some guys in between those two groups who might be worth a look as budgetary options, especially those older than Tucker. But I thought this would be an interesting enough way to kick off the discussion by showing what the WR market is looking like right now, so that we could reasonably put into context what it will cost us to improve the position next year. Is simply drafting a WR a good enough plan in 2027? Do you want to keep Tucker? Or maybe sign someone else?
2027 FA WRs These are the options other than Tucker in 2027. One important thing to note, is that the only players on the list younger than Tucker are Marvin Mims and George Pickens (By 4 days). My theory is that Tucker is going to have a lot more interest than any of us realize, and might be more coveted by another team than he is by us. Right now Tucker is on pace for a career year. If he continues his average of 59 yards a game, he can reasonably finish the season around 1K yards. While I feel like he leaves a lot to be desired as a player, if we compare him to someone who recently signed a contract with similar career numbers, what could we learn about Tucker's value?
Control Group: Tre Tucker
Ex 1: Michael Wilson, Cardinals, 26 Yrs old
Last offseason Wilson signed a 3yr, $75 mill extension at an APY of $25mill a year. His age and numbers are very similar to Tucker's. On top of that, both players are having very similar years in 2026, you could argue Tucker is playing quite a bit better. But let's assume Wilson's contract is a product of a poor Cardinal's org. Let's move on to another example.
Ex 2. Christian Watson, Packers, 27 Yrs old
Watson also signed an extension last year, this one at an APY of $23mill a year. His career production is similar to Tucker, he seems to be a better red zone player than Tucker is.
Ex. 3 Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars, 30 Yrs old
This last comp is more of a stretch, but valid because he was in the building and we moved on from him due to a perceived lack of value when it came to a contract extension. I would argue Jakobi Meyers's $20 mill APY is Tucker's floor. I was one of the loudest when it came to Jakobi not being worth what he was going to get paid, and I think the greater conclusion to make here is that mid level WR's are being paid handsomely across the board for very little on field production. Tucker is currently outperforming Meyers in 2026.
So now we have established the general range for Tucker's comps are between $20-25 mill a year. If we decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze, it's worth taking a look at more expensive options while we're at it.
Ex. JSN, Drake London, & Zay Flowers All three of these players recently signed contracts at the following APYs ($42.2, 35.2, 35). The main two high end receiver targets for this upcoming offseason (If they hit the open market) will be Nacua and Pickens.
London and Zay aren't remotely on the same level as Nacua or Pickens. I think JSN is the rare example of a guy setting the market and then defending his position as the #1, as he's clearly still the best WR in the league. Those other guys set the floor at $35.2 mill, but both Nacua and Pickens will probably be more in line with JSN's $42.2. So a roughly $18 mill price difference from Tucker's group.
There are some guys in between those two groups who might be worth a look as budgetary options, especially those older than Tucker. But I thought this would be an interesting enough way to kick off the discussion by showing what the WR market is looking like right now, so that we could reasonably put into context what it will cost us to improve the position next year. Is simply drafting a WR a good enough plan in 2027? Do you want to keep Tucker? Or maybe sign someone else?
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mstrbass2000
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they said arod was washed the last 3 yrs too "what did the 3rd and 5th get the steelers while losing a wr1 is a better measure"NoThanksSir wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2026 1:25 pm They're 3-5 while the Steelers are 6-2. I beg to differ lol.
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CWood24
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Yeah cause no team with cap salary issues, massive FA losses pending & top draft capital deficit has ever let a top player go who has legals issue & injury issuesmstrbass2000 wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2026 11:19 am yeah, thats not gonna happen...the rams do not let stud walk, they resign em, actually no team in teh n.f.l would ever let a top 10 wr walk
The guys you suggest would be horrible fits for Kubiak’s system same as Jerry Jeudy who you’ve constantly mentioned aswell quick google would tell you that
A guy like Deebo Samuel would be the perfect FA WR for us or if the Bucs dont opt in on Godwin’s 3rd year he’d be a great
A big reason we have gotten in such a mess is because we have so many players who don't fit the system of the nee coaching staff so why bring in guys who dont fit what Kubiak does
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NoThanksSir
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Goal posts shifted fast lolmstrbass2000 wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2026 1:28 pm they said arod was washed the last 3 yrs too "what did the 3rd and 5th get the steelers while losing a wr1 is a better measure"
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chucker
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Pickens put the Cowboys over the top last year, singlehandedly taking them from 7-10 to 7-9-1. Beast. No need to talk about this season when you have an epic result like that as a treasured memory.