Emo Andy Dalton after a trip to Sephora on Groundhog Day (Carr thread)

[RaiderandBulldog]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Raiders/stat ... 3878636548

[Attyla]

The numbers say otherwise, his value is in the 30M range.

[Amish Cabal]

His consistent late season crashes make his numbers irrelevant, and render him useless, IMO.

[Jeremyturner1976]

[quote=Attyla post_id=1049885]The numbers say otherwise, his value is in the 30M range.[/quote]That is what others are willing to pay yes, but if you don't win the big game that is his cost, not his value. Value to me doesn't equate to playoff appearances but actual success seen after paying that contract.

I feel all QBs are overpaid now. Dak, Rodgers, Wilson, Mahommes, Allen - I want no part of these 'new' contracts.

I 100% expect these teams to start struggling as they ditch talent elsewhere to keep one player. Eventually statistics will prove that what they are doing is folly and the prices will drop or the cap will hit 300 million, there really is not a middle ground.

It takes a top 10 offense and defense to be a contender and one QB doesn't magically equal that. Around 8.5% of the cap is the average QB hit of SuperBowl winning QBs over these past 15 seasons in the modern cap era . Mahommes and Allen at 40 is near 25% for example - history has shown that they will regret overpaying.

* Stafford was only 20 this year, even with all that talent around him. Aaron Donald at 15 and Jalen Ramsey at 10.

[Attyla]

[quote=Jeremyturner1976 post_id=1049898]That is what others are willing to pay yes, but if you don't win the big game that is his cost, not his value. Value to me doesn't equate to playoff appearances but actual success seen after paying that contract.

I feel all QBs are overpaid now. Dak, Rodgers, Wilson, Mahommes, Allen - I want no part of these 'new' contracts.

I 100% expect these teams to start struggling as they ditch talent elsewhere to keep one player. Eventually statistics will prove that what they are doing is folly and the prices will drop or the cap will hit 300 million, there really is not a middle ground.

It takes a top 10 offense and defense to be a contender and one QB doesn't magically equal that. Around 8.5% of the cap is the average QB hit of SuperBowl winning QBs over these past 15 seasons in the modern cap era . Mahommes and Allen at 40 is near 25% for example - history has shown that they will regret overpaying.

(Stafford was only 20 this year)[/quote]well, the market dictates value and in today's market, his production puts him at around 30M per. I would not do it but that is what the market is saying. 10 wins, and top 5 in yards in a year where the team was a trainwreck outside the field is going to get him that kind of deal.

like I said, I would not do it, but then again, I think there needs to be a cap on salaries all together.

[Jeremyturner1976]

[quote=Attyla post_id=1049899]well, the market dictates value and in today's market, his production puts him at around 30M per. I would not do it but that is what the market is saying. 10 wins, and top 5 in yards in a year where the team was a trainwreck outside the field is going to get him that kind of deal.

like I said, I would not do it, but then again, I think there needs to be a cap on salaries all together.[/quote]Oh, no question, if we don't pay 35, some other team will give up picks just for the opportunity to pay him that. Lots of coaches and GMs need .500 seasons to keep their jobs. Carr is capable of that.

I am just saying that I am looking forward to counting Lombardis 10 years from now. Those high paid QBs won't see many, if any, is my guess.

Rookies still cost 5-8 and the farther the contracts get from that, the more likely a rookie is to make it. Mahommes, Burrows, Goff, Newton, Wilson, Foles cheap (Wentz rookie contract), etc..

There are tons of rookies making it to the SuperBowl already and some winning. The bigger that gap gets, the easier it will be for rookies to succeed.

At some point, the market will correct itself.

[chucker]

There are comparable QBs in the $30 million range, but they signed their deals 3-4 years ago. When they signed their deals the Carr contract at $25 million was exceeded because the value was out of date, and that's how the market will work now. The market is closer to the Dak contract than it is to the Cousins and Ryan contracts.

I don't think the market accurately reflects the value, in this tier of QB. The market price is too rich IMO.

[Willmark]

Carr is not taking a discount and he’s getting resigned for 4-5 years at 35-40 million per.

Is what it is.

[Attyla]

[quote=chucker post_id=1049902]There are comparable QBs in the $30 million range, but they signed their deals 3-4 years ago. When they signed their deals the Carr contract at $25 million was exceeded because the value was out of date, and that's how the market will work now. The market is closer to the Dak contract than it is to the Cousins and Ryan contracts.

I don't think the market accurately reflects the value, in this tier of QB. The market price is too rich IMO.[/quote]but the market dictates the value whether it is accurate or not. Cleveland with Carr on a nice sunny day is worth 30M+ to that team which was held back by a regressing Baker. And there are other teams as well.

[chucker]

[quote=Attyla post_id=1049904]but the market dictates the value whether it is accurate or not. Cleveland with Carr on a nice sunny day is worth 30M+ to that team which was held back by a regressing Baker. And there are other teams as well.[/quote]I just wouldn't pay it. He's under contract. Play it out. If he ascends to a higher level under the new regime then you talk contract, or tag him, or move on. You don't have to pay "market". Carr's play is worth $30 in today's game..... the market - what QBs actually get paid - is higher.

[signal]

[quote=Willmark post_id=1049903]Carr is not taking a discount and he’s getting resigned for 4-5 years at 35-40 million per.

Is what it is.[/quote]You may be right. I do think it would be a huge mistake.

I think it makes so much more sense to see what Carr will do in Josh's system. IF he for whatever reason, all of sudden, miraculously takes a step forward, like some slow learner who simply needed the right coach to push him, and becomes that QB we are all wanting, then yes sign him to this rich extension.

BUT, if after a year, you see a QB who continues to be troubled by the same damn bad habits of giving up on plays early, fumbling the ball, sticking with one WR without going through his progressions, refusing to run when there is ample opportunity, and his production falls off a cliff late in the season, then you look at that and realize that such a rich extension is not the answer.

You have a new GM, new HC and a new coaching staff with a new scheme....why must they make the decision this offseason while he is STILL under contract? It makes absolutely no sense to me.

As a Raider fan who cares about their future, I think it only makes sense to see how this marriage works for a year before committing to it. I may be delusional, but still think that unless Carr extends at a team friendly deal, the contract will not get done this offseason.

The only way I see this getting done is if Carr decides to give the organization the type of deal that will allow them room to improve the team.

[Attyla]

[quote=chucker post_id=1049905]I just wouldn't pay it. He's under contract. Play it out. If he ascends to a higher level under the new regime then you talk contract, or tag him, or move on. You don't have to pay "market". Carr's play is worth $30 in today's game..... the market - what QBs actually get paid - is higher.[/quote]I cannot argue what you are saying. I am probably more resigned to the probability that Mark is going to jump the market value and secure Carr for 5 years or so to keep his price lower. Carr makes the team money, there can be almost no doubt, and his image is good for a team that took an image bath in the last year.

[Jeremyturner1976]

[quote=Attyla post_id=1049908]I cannot argue what you are saying. I am probably more resigned to the probability that Mark is going to jump the market value and secure Carr for 5 years or so to keep his price lower. Carr makes the team money, there can be almost no doubt, and his image is good for a team that took an image bath in the last year.[/quote]Mark is as conservative as Gruden was. This is a punt on 4th and 1 from the 50 - and I have zero doubts Mark will make it happen.

[Raidernation1979]

The only saving grace that this may not happen this off-season is that the GM did not sound very committal in the press conference

[Toons]

I cannot understand why Raiders management is even considering contract extension talks right now? The scrub QB is still under contract for the 22 season. Let him prove his worth and why he deserves so much money and more time here. Don't handcuff and tie up all the money with this guy, he's not worth it. Money is needed elsewhere to get free agents to fill holes.

[live.B.A.raida]

Carr had prime Crabtree and a young Cooper who only came into the league averaging 1k yards a season but now the narrative is he never had good receivers and that’s why he’s a bad red zone QB you can’t make this stuff up with Carr fans.