Emo Andy Dalton after a trip to Sephora on Groundhog Day (Carr thread)
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RaiderandBulldog
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NoThanksSir
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Sunday's loss was a major step back for Carr. I'll try not to overreact. The playoffs has and remains to be my last straw regarding both Carr and anyone left in this regime. If we miss the playoffs or are a weak one and done then it is time to clean house.
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fellow59
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[quote=raiders1988xyz post_id=1009561]https://twitter.com/JoshDubowAP/status/ ... 17348?s=20
the raiders need to take a good hard look why carr not doing well in november and december
there is a pattern for the last 3 years, you can look at 2015 and 2017 where carr falling apart in the 2nd half of the season too
6-4 record, finish 1-5
6-3 record, finish 2-5
5-2 record, so far 0-1
if we can't get in the playoffs this year after 5-2 mark, then carr gotta go[/quote]It actually kind of pisses me off that I had to go back and do this, but this is exactly what's wrong with a guy who's good at posting stats without really being a real stat guy. The guy who just wants to rile people up and get reactions. The implication here is that Carr is consistently better in Sept/Oct and worse in Nov/Dec. But is this really true, and is it true today? Grouping his entire career makes it appear so, but here are his numbers by month:
2014 - 75.2, 89.8, 64.7, 82.9 - this does not fit the narrative, as he was very up and down, never really very good
2015 - 102.4, 99.7, 102, 69.9 - well, it fits for December, but 102 in November his sophomore year
2016 - 99.1, 102, 99.3, 84.9 - worrisome trend for December, but still looking ok in November
2017 - 101.4, 84.4, 93.1, 76 - another bad December, generally just a pretty shitty year outside of September, though
2018 - 89.7, 103.3, 88.1, 97.3 - oops, seems to have bucked that bad December trend, and actually had a crummy September
2019 - 96.7, 113.5, 96.2, 100.4 - well, shit, what does this mean? He was actually pretty good all year, and December was his second best month
2020 - 116.4, 109.5, 93.9, 95.1 - he went from stellar to good, but with December still mid-90's, it was actually pretty mid-range for him as far as months go
Graphically, it becomes more clear that it is not a consistent decline in the last 2 months of every season. He's up and down depending on the year, and sometimes he gets better, sometimes he gets worse. In fact, under Gruden, until last year, he was as bad in September as he was in November.
So, what does this tell us? Absolutely nothing. There's no reason to expect he's definitely going to be worse in November and December. At least, that's what the data suggests, despite implications to the contrary.
the raiders need to take a good hard look why carr not doing well in november and december
there is a pattern for the last 3 years, you can look at 2015 and 2017 where carr falling apart in the 2nd half of the season too
6-4 record, finish 1-5
6-3 record, finish 2-5
5-2 record, so far 0-1
if we can't get in the playoffs this year after 5-2 mark, then carr gotta go[/quote]It actually kind of pisses me off that I had to go back and do this, but this is exactly what's wrong with a guy who's good at posting stats without really being a real stat guy. The guy who just wants to rile people up and get reactions. The implication here is that Carr is consistently better in Sept/Oct and worse in Nov/Dec. But is this really true, and is it true today? Grouping his entire career makes it appear so, but here are his numbers by month:
2014 - 75.2, 89.8, 64.7, 82.9 - this does not fit the narrative, as he was very up and down, never really very good
2015 - 102.4, 99.7, 102, 69.9 - well, it fits for December, but 102 in November his sophomore year
2016 - 99.1, 102, 99.3, 84.9 - worrisome trend for December, but still looking ok in November
2017 - 101.4, 84.4, 93.1, 76 - another bad December, generally just a pretty shitty year outside of September, though
2018 - 89.7, 103.3, 88.1, 97.3 - oops, seems to have bucked that bad December trend, and actually had a crummy September
2019 - 96.7, 113.5, 96.2, 100.4 - well, shit, what does this mean? He was actually pretty good all year, and December was his second best month
2020 - 116.4, 109.5, 93.9, 95.1 - he went from stellar to good, but with December still mid-90's, it was actually pretty mid-range for him as far as months go
Graphically, it becomes more clear that it is not a consistent decline in the last 2 months of every season. He's up and down depending on the year, and sometimes he gets better, sometimes he gets worse. In fact, under Gruden, until last year, he was as bad in September as he was in November.
So, what does this tell us? Absolutely nothing. There's no reason to expect he's definitely going to be worse in November and December. At least, that's what the data suggests, despite implications to the contrary.
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raiders1988xyz
to fellow59
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 02/splits/
you can look up the stats here - "split - month"
completion % went down
yards per attempt went down
taking more sacks in nov / dec
more fumbles in nov / dec
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 02/splits/
you can look up the stats here - "split - month"
completion % went down
yards per attempt went down
taking more sacks in nov / dec
more fumbles in nov / dec
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Attyla
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he had a bad game, we had a bad week
we gotta have a good game and a good week
we gotta have a good game and a good week
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raiders1988xyz
also i would like to add looking at carr career
game 1-4, 55 touchdowns, 22 interceptions
game 5-8, 56 touchdowns, 19 interceptions
game 9-12, 37 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
game 13-16, 35 touchdowns, 17 interceptions
carr took a nose dive in game 9 to 16
no wonder, raiders started hot and fell apart in 2nd half
game 1-4, 55 touchdowns, 22 interceptions
game 5-8, 56 touchdowns, 19 interceptions
game 9-12, 37 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
game 13-16, 35 touchdowns, 17 interceptions
carr took a nose dive in game 9 to 16
no wonder, raiders started hot and fell apart in 2nd half
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fellow59
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[quote=raiders1988xyz post_id=1009884]to fellow59
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 02/splits/
you can look up the stats here - "split - month"
completion % went down
yards per attempt went down
taking more sacks in nov / dec
more fumbles in nov / dec[/quote]You completely missed the point. Looking at all of November doesn't really tell us anything - he had some really bad Nov/Dec months early in his career (and 2017 was a catastrophe). Is that really still the case? The numbers would suggest not. Because trends matter more than a 7 year total - especially when those totals are across 3 coaches and 4 coordinators.
Go by year by month, just not total. What is he doing more recently?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 02/splits/
you can look up the stats here - "split - month"
completion % went down
yards per attempt went down
taking more sacks in nov / dec
more fumbles in nov / dec[/quote]You completely missed the point. Looking at all of November doesn't really tell us anything - he had some really bad Nov/Dec months early in his career (and 2017 was a catastrophe). Is that really still the case? The numbers would suggest not. Because trends matter more than a 7 year total - especially when those totals are across 3 coaches and 4 coordinators.
Go by year by month, just not total. What is he doing more recently?
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Attyla
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More recently? He has been the winning QB against exactly 1 team with a winning record?
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Xramfan
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Honest question.....how often does Carr shit the bed 2 weeks in a row?
I despise KC the most of any team on the planet in any sport and need Carr to play well next week.
I despise KC the most of any team on the planet in any sport and need Carr to play well next week.
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rich72
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[quote=Aqua post_id=1009789]There is at least a 50-50 chance Bisaccia will be the Raiders head coach next season.[/quote]I think so far coach B is doing a good job. I was 100% against him at first as our coach. Now I think he is doing good considering the enormous amount of stuff that has been unfolding lately. All of these issues were things happening prior to coach B as head coach.
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fellow59
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[quote=Attyla post_id=1009908]More recently? He has been the winning QB against exactly 1 team with a winning record?[/quote]You are the master of jumping in to a conversation without actually understanding what's being discussed.
I'm not arguing that he's a great quarterback, I'm pointing out that over the last 3 years this alleged Nov/Dec slump is not really so much a thing.
Over the last 3 years (since Gruden):
Completion percentage has some drop off, but December improves:
Sept - 72.1
Oct - 72
Nov - 64.8
Dec - 67.9
TD/Int - September is his worst ratio, December is ok (though over more games):
Sept - 18/10
Oct - 16/4
Nov - 13/4
Dec - 18/7
Y/A - December is his second best month:
Sept - 7.65
Oct - 8.2
Nov - 7
Dec - 7.86
Sks/attempt - slight increase that amounts to about 3/4 sack a game?:
Sept - 0.05
Oct - 0.05
Nov - 0.08
Dec - 0.07
Fumbles/game - December is actually his best month:
Sept - 0.63
Oct - 0.67
Nov - 0.69
Dec - 0.48
Looking at all of that, can we really say that we can predict he'll be worse in Nov/Dec (just because Josh Dubow posted some lifetime stats)?
We cannot.
I'm not arguing that he's a great quarterback, I'm pointing out that over the last 3 years this alleged Nov/Dec slump is not really so much a thing.
Over the last 3 years (since Gruden):
Completion percentage has some drop off, but December improves:
Sept - 72.1
Oct - 72
Nov - 64.8
Dec - 67.9
TD/Int - September is his worst ratio, December is ok (though over more games):
Sept - 18/10
Oct - 16/4
Nov - 13/4
Dec - 18/7
Y/A - December is his second best month:
Sept - 7.65
Oct - 8.2
Nov - 7
Dec - 7.86
Sks/attempt - slight increase that amounts to about 3/4 sack a game?:
Sept - 0.05
Oct - 0.05
Nov - 0.08
Dec - 0.07
Fumbles/game - December is actually his best month:
Sept - 0.63
Oct - 0.67
Nov - 0.69
Dec - 0.48
Looking at all of that, can we really say that we can predict he'll be worse in Nov/Dec (just because Josh Dubow posted some lifetime stats)?
We cannot.
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fellow59
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[quote=Xramfan post_id=1009915]Honest question.....how often does Carr shit the bed 2 weeks in a row?
I despise KC the most of any team on the planet in any sport and need Carr to play well next week.[/quote]Good question, quick look shows the last time it happened was 2018 when we were crushed by the Jets and then he laid an egg against KC. Scary because it was KC, but that was in KC with KC coming off the bye.
Before that . . looks like 2017 when the wheels came off.
I despise KC the most of any team on the planet in any sport and need Carr to play well next week.[/quote]Good question, quick look shows the last time it happened was 2018 when we were crushed by the Jets and then he laid an egg against KC. Scary because it was KC, but that was in KC with KC coming off the bye.
Before that . . looks like 2017 when the wheels came off.
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srv5490
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[quote=fellow59 post_id=1009934]Looking at all of that, can we really say that we can predict he'll be worse in Nov/Dec (just because Josh Dubow posted some lifetime stats)?
We cannot.[/quote]I already stated my position on Carr's performance the last game. That said, your stats aren't really supporting your argument. And, there's this:
Carr's record by month:
Sept: 14-13
Oct: 10-18
Nov: 15-15
Dec: 12-19
We cannot.[/quote]I already stated my position on Carr's performance the last game. That said, your stats aren't really supporting your argument. And, there's this:
Carr's record by month:
Sept: 14-13
Oct: 10-18
Nov: 15-15
Dec: 12-19
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fellow59
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[quote=srv5490 post_id=1009939]I already stated my position on Carr's performance the last game. That said, your stats aren't really supporting your argument. And, there's this:
Carr's record by month:
Sept: 14-13
Oct: 10-18
Nov: 15-15
Dec: 12-19[/quote]Wow, you went right back to his career record by month. I'm not sure we're on the same page.
Say more about how the stats are not supporting my argument. The premise is that the career totals people keep stating prove he will be worse in Nov/Dec. The numbers show that has not really been true the last 3 years at least. If the point is to use the numbers to prove he'll be worse, do you think they're doing that? Jesus, even Carr's record by month doesn't prove it. He's clearly far better in November than in October if you believe just that, right?
I mean, it's not like there's the rest of the team to worry about for that, anyway.
Carr's record by month:
Sept: 14-13
Oct: 10-18
Nov: 15-15
Dec: 12-19[/quote]Wow, you went right back to his career record by month. I'm not sure we're on the same page.
Say more about how the stats are not supporting my argument. The premise is that the career totals people keep stating prove he will be worse in Nov/Dec. The numbers show that has not really been true the last 3 years at least. If the point is to use the numbers to prove he'll be worse, do you think they're doing that? Jesus, even Carr's record by month doesn't prove it. He's clearly far better in November than in October if you believe just that, right?
I mean, it's not like there's the rest of the team to worry about for that, anyway.
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srv5490
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[quote=fellow59 post_id=1009943]Wow, you went right back to his career record by month. I'm not sure we're on the same page.
Say more about how the stats are not supporting my argument. The premise is that the career totals people keep stating prove he will be worse in Nov/Dec. The numbers show that has not really been true the last 3 years at least. If the point is to use the numbers to prove he'll be worse, do you think they're doing that? Jesus, even Carr's record by month doesn't prove it. He's clearly far better in November than in October if you believe just that, right?
I mean, it's not like there's the rest of the team to worry about for that, anyway.[/quote]Obviously, we're not on the same page, that was the premise of my post. If you want more explanation, I will provide it in red below:
[quote=fellow59 post_id=1009943]
Over the last 3 years (since Gruden):
Completion percentage has some drop off, but December improves:
Sept - 72.1
Oct - 72
Nov - 64.8
Dec - 67.9
This is a significant drop off in the latter two months, in what is probably the second most indicative stat of a QB's performance (after QBR). Nobody is arguing that there is a perfect linear slope from game 1 through game 16. The primary point is that he, and the team, performs worse in the second half of the season. Your stats here illustrate that well.
TD/Int - September is his worst ratio, December is ok (though over more games):
Sept - 18/10
Oct - 16/4
Nov - 13/4
Dec - 18/7
Don't really care about the ratio. TDs drop from 1.5/game in Sept to 1.3/game in Oct to 1.1/game in Nov. That's significant. OK, they go up again in Dec, but the overall trend is a decrease.
Y/A - December is his second best month:
Sept - 7.65
Oct - 8.2
Nov - 7
Dec - 7.86
This is important, but not QB rating or W/L record? LOL.
Sks/attempt - slight increase that amounts to about 3/4 sack a game?:
Sept - 0.05
Oct - 0.05
Nov - 0.08
Dec - 0.07
See above
Fumbles/game - December is actually his best month:
Sept - 0.63
Oct - 0.67
Nov - 0.69
Dec - 0.48
OK, you got me here - every month is unacceptably high. BTW, Carr led the NFL in two of the years you are referencing. Not just QB's, the entire NFL. The good news is that he is only 5th this year (0.75 fumbles/game)
[/quote]There you go.
Say more about how the stats are not supporting my argument. The premise is that the career totals people keep stating prove he will be worse in Nov/Dec. The numbers show that has not really been true the last 3 years at least. If the point is to use the numbers to prove he'll be worse, do you think they're doing that? Jesus, even Carr's record by month doesn't prove it. He's clearly far better in November than in October if you believe just that, right?
I mean, it's not like there's the rest of the team to worry about for that, anyway.[/quote]Obviously, we're not on the same page, that was the premise of my post. If you want more explanation, I will provide it in red below:
[quote=fellow59 post_id=1009943]
Over the last 3 years (since Gruden):
Completion percentage has some drop off, but December improves:
Sept - 72.1
Oct - 72
Nov - 64.8
Dec - 67.9
This is a significant drop off in the latter two months, in what is probably the second most indicative stat of a QB's performance (after QBR). Nobody is arguing that there is a perfect linear slope from game 1 through game 16. The primary point is that he, and the team, performs worse in the second half of the season. Your stats here illustrate that well.
TD/Int - September is his worst ratio, December is ok (though over more games):
Sept - 18/10
Oct - 16/4
Nov - 13/4
Dec - 18/7
Don't really care about the ratio. TDs drop from 1.5/game in Sept to 1.3/game in Oct to 1.1/game in Nov. That's significant. OK, they go up again in Dec, but the overall trend is a decrease.
Y/A - December is his second best month:
Sept - 7.65
Oct - 8.2
Nov - 7
Dec - 7.86
This is important, but not QB rating or W/L record? LOL.
Sks/attempt - slight increase that amounts to about 3/4 sack a game?:
Sept - 0.05
Oct - 0.05
Nov - 0.08
Dec - 0.07
See above
Fumbles/game - December is actually his best month:
Sept - 0.63
Oct - 0.67
Nov - 0.69
Dec - 0.48
OK, you got me here - every month is unacceptably high. BTW, Carr led the NFL in two of the years you are referencing. Not just QB's, the entire NFL. The good news is that he is only 5th this year (0.75 fumbles/game)
[/quote]There you go.