Page 4 of 4

Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2026 12:11 pm
by NoThanksSir
There is a situation developing with Tre Tucker that is going under the radar. Tucker is a FA this offseason, and while he leaves a lot to be desired in a #1WR after Bowers, he unfortunately is our best WR. I'm not his biggest fan by any means, but even if we take a WR with our 1st pick in 2027 we're still in a precarious situation if he were to walk in free agency. Rookie receivers, especially those taken outside of the top 10, are rarely immediate contributors. I'm skeptical that a Rookie+Nailor/Bech/etc. will produce better results than what we have now. This is even more pressing of an issue because Mendoza will be playing next year, and that is a god awful situation for our prized QB prospect to be walking into. I think even if we assume that first pick is a receiver, we need to consider that another move at WR will need to accompany that selection. That could be re-signing Tucker, going after a more expensive #1, or seeking out a veteran bandaid while a rookie receiver develops. Of course there is option D, none of the above. Which I personally think would be a recipe for disaster, as the other talent on this roster hasn't shown enough potential.

2027 FA WRs
27 fa wrs.png
These are the options other than Tucker in 2027. One important thing to note, is that the only players on the list younger than Tucker are Marvin Mims and George Pickens (By 4 days). My theory is that Tucker is going to have a lot more interest than any of us realize, and might be more coveted by another team than he is by us. Right now Tucker is on pace for a career year. If he continues his average of 59 yards a game, he can reasonably finish the season around 1K yards. While I feel like he leaves a lot to be desired as a player, if we compare him to someone who recently signed a contract with similar career numbers, what could we learn about Tucker's value?

Control Group: Tre Tucker
tucker.png
Ex 1: Michael Wilson, Cardinals, 26 Yrs old
michaelwilson.png
Last offseason Wilson signed a 3yr, $75 mill extension at an APY of $25mill a year. His age and numbers are very similar to Tucker's. On top of that, both players are having very similar years in 2026, you could argue Tucker is playing quite a bit better. But let's assume Wilson's contract is a product of a poor Cardinal's org. Let's move on to another example.

Ex 2. Christian Watson, Packers, 27 Yrs old
christianwatson.png
Watson also signed an extension last year, this one at an APY of $23mill a year. His career production is similar to Tucker, he seems to be a better red zone player than Tucker is.

Ex. 3 Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars, 30 Yrs old
jakobi meyers.png
This last comp is more of a stretch, but valid because he was in the building and we moved on from him due to a perceived lack of value when it came to a contract extension. I would argue Jakobi Meyers's $20 mill APY is Tucker's floor. I was one of the loudest when it came to Jakobi not being worth what he was going to get paid, and I think the greater conclusion to make here is that mid level WR's are being paid handsomely across the board for very little on field production. Tucker is currently outperforming Meyers in 2026.

So now we have established the general range for Tucker's comps are between $20-25 mill a year. If we decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze, it's worth taking a look at more expensive options while we're at it.

Ex. JSN, Drake London, & Zay Flowers
jsn.png
london.png
flowers.png
All three of these players recently signed contracts at the following APYs ($42.2, 35.2, 35). The main two high end receiver targets for this upcoming offseason (If they hit the open market) will be Nacua and Pickens.
nacua.png
pickens.png
London and Zay aren't remotely on the same level as Nacua or Pickens. I think JSN is the rare example of a guy setting the market and then defending his position as the #1, as he's clearly still the best WR in the league. Those other guys set the floor at $35.2 mill, but both Nacua and Pickens will probably be more in line with JSN's $42.2. So a roughly $18 mill price difference from Tucker's group.


There are some guys in between those two groups who might be worth a look as budgetary options, especially those older than Tucker. But I thought this would be an interesting enough way to kick off the discussion by showing what the WR market is looking like right now, so that we could reasonably put into context what it will cost us to improve the position next year. Is simply drafting a WR a good enough plan in 2027? Do you want to keep Tucker? Or maybe sign someone else?

Re: Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2026 12:02 pm
by NoThanksSir
Xramfan wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2026 11:55 am Like I said earlier, we have another half season of try outs for next year. Tre and Nailor have time to make their cases. Thorton apparently cant make the field with these guys yet. Maybe he battles it out with Cody White?
White was just released. He might settle back on the PS but I think Thornton will be given a chance to prove himself along Tre and Nailor.

Re: Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2026 12:20 pm
by Attyla
NoThanksSir wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2026 11:24 am This is the crux of the debate. What is the best bang for our buck? Tucker's possible compensation makes me feel uncomfortable. In a perfect world I'd like to keep him a bit longer while we draft a legitimate #1, but my theory is that he's playing himself out of Vegas.

This is also why I brought up Nacua or Pickens if they become legitimate options, because the extra 20 mill you have to spend gets you someone who can change the entire offense. I also think the timing of it would make sense while Mendoza is on his rookie deal. It's a deep WR draft so I'm confident we'll get a prospect somewhere but Idk if it's a foregone conclusion that it will be with the 1st.
Bang for the buck, well, linemen can be had on day 2 that are instant starters. NT's can be had on day 3 that are instant starters. Receivers are tricky. As pointed out, first round receivers can give you headaches that can ruin a franchise. That is why you look at character first among those guys.

I don't know the answers, but I am certain there is more than one direction that will get results. This all depends on Mendoza being the real deal and we will not have a visible sign of that until he is starting for us. It is one of the reasons I want him out there soon. The quicker we know what we have, the quicker we know where we are going to go. Mendoza is not the best deep ball guy, but the system Kubiak does not require him to be. He is a guy who likes to work the middle of the field and a guy who likes to throw to the sidelines but not darts. He likes his receivers to create after the catch. It was that way at Cal as well. But we will not know what he is morphing into until we see him process the game and lead the team.

Until that happens, we don't know if Tucker and he will click. We don't know if he and Bech will find a connection. The only one we know will be fine is Bowers because Bowers is a fit for anyone.

Re: Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2026 12:23 pm
by chucker
NoThanksSir wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2026 12:02 pm White was just released. He might settle back on the PS but I think Thornton will be given a chance to prove himself along Tre and Nailor.