Fernando Mendoza Welcome To Las Vegas

[Sold My Soul]

Call your shot....or add your own.

Dante Moore:

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Dante-Moore-QB-UCLA

Fernando Mendoza:

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Fer ... California

May the football godz look kindly down upon the feeble and inept.

[Willmark]

...kinda hard to prove a negative.

Wait...what?

That's not how it works. You made the claim, the onus is on you.

[raidersince63]

Wait...what?

That's not how it works. You made the claim, the onus is on you.

One more time ...you cannot prove something that never happened anymore than you can disprove it.

...geez, my initial post was my opinion.

[Attyla]

One more time ...you cannot prove something that never happened anymore than you can disprove it.

...geez, my initial post was my opinion.

unless it happened

[Corleone]

2001 Miami Hurricanes

Key Offensive Players (Starters/Key Contributors):
QB: Ken Dorsey (Heisman finalist)
RB: Clinton Portis, Najeh Davenport, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore
WR: Andre Johnson, Daryl Jones, Ethenic Sands, Kevin Beard
TE: Jeremy Shockey, David Williams
OL: Joaquin Gonzalez, Chris Myers, Bryant McKinnie, William Joseph
Key Defensive Players (Starters/Key Contributors):
DL: Vince Wilfork, William Joseph, John Square
LB: Jonathan Vilma, DJ Williams
DB: Ed Reed, Antrel Rolle, Sean Taylor, Philip Buchanan

That team had 17 future first round picks.

No amount of argument can convince me this 2025 Raiders could compete with that team.

[LayneStaley]

Giants are gonna lose, I actually like the SF/Det/NO route to number 1 though. Those are all winnable.

[raidersince63]

lol... Yeah...Indiana played the Raiders.

SMH.

[Cruisin with Tooz]

Giants are gonna lose, I actually like the SF/Det/NO route to number 1 though. Those are all winnable.

The problem is that you have to take 3 out of four. Best shot is losing to KC. Second best chance is Giants winning.

[islandboy]

2001 Miami Hurricanes

Key Offensive Players (Starters/Key Contributors):
QB: Ken Dorsey (Heisman finalist)
RB: Clinton Portis, Najeh Davenport, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore
WR: Andre Johnson, Daryl Jones, Ethenic Sands, Kevin Beard
TE: Jeremy Shockey, David Williams
OL: Joaquin Gonzalez, Chris Myers, Bryant McKinnie, William Joseph
Key Defensive Players (Starters/Key Contributors):
DL: Vince Wilfork, William Joseph, John Square
LB: Jonathan Vilma, DJ Williams
DB: Ed Reed, Antrel Rolle, Sean Taylor, Philip Buchanan

That team had 17 future first round picks.

No amount of argument can convince me this 2025 Raiders could compete with that team.

Sad we only drafted one of those players.

[Willmark]

People can believe what the want, probability and modeling says otherwise. 18-21 YO who are in the college level of production vs. NFL Pros who have made the leap to the Pros?

Monte Carlo for 2001 Miami Hurricanes vs 2025 Raiders, neutral field, NFL rules.

Model assumptions (deliberately generous to Miami):
Margin (Raiders − Miami) ~ Normal(mean 24, sd 14)
Total points ~ Normal (mean 52, sd 11)

200,000 simulated games

Results
Raiders win: 95.275%
Miami win: 4.070%
Tie: 0.655%

Expected score
Raiders: 38.0
Miami: 14.2

Median score: Raiders 38 – Miami 14
Median margin: Raiders by 24

10–90% “typical” ranges
Raiders points: 27–49
Miami points: 3–25
Margin: 6–41

Total points: 39–66

[Corleone]

The problem is that you have to take 3 out of four. Best shot is losing to KC. Second best chance is Giants winning.

the big one is SF winning Saturday night, if that happens, we have a punchers chance at hitting the parlay. Cincy is a huge favorite, gotta think they get it done without much trouble. We'd just need one upset out of two games, and Detroit would love to keep Chicago from the #2 seed.

[Corleone]

People can believe what the want, probability and modeling says otherwise. 18-21 YO who are in the college level of production vs. NFL Pros who have made the leap to the Pros?

Monte Carlo for 2001 Miami Hurricanes vs 2025 Raiders, neutral field, NFL rules.

Model assumptions (deliberately generous to Miami):
Margin (Raiders − Miami) ~ Normal(mean 24, sd 14)
Total points ~ Normal (mean 52, sd 11)

200,000 simulated games

Results
Raiders win: 95.275%
Miami win: 4.070%
Tie: 0.655%

Expected score
Raiders: 38.0
Miami: 14.2

Median score: Raiders 38 – Miami 14
Median margin: Raiders by 24

10–90% “typical” ranges
Raiders points: 27–49
Miami points: 3–25
Margin: 6–41

Total points: 39–66

Except my eyes saw this team get blown out by Shedeur Sanders, I'm not believing a college team full of all-pros would lose to this team.

[Willmark]

Except my eyes saw this team get blown out by Shedeur Sanders, I'm not believing a college team full of all-pros would lose to this team.

I know you're a fan of AI. Run it yourself and see what you get.

ETA: the part you're missing? They were good for college they weren't yet All-pros at the NFL level. If you based it on their NFL production and not their college for each player than sure. Add thats just one of a whole host of factors that tips it to any NFL team.

[Hellbound]

Except my eyes saw this team get blown out by Shedeur Sanders, I'm not believing a college team full of all-pros would lose to this team.

The same Sanders who barely completed 50% of his passes and led his team to 270 total yds. he had way less to do with that victory than the defense did leading with 10 sacks & Judkins getting 2 tds

This debate is ages old but there's simply no way am college team is going to beat an NFL team

[Corleone]

I know you're a fan of AI. Run it yourself and see what you get.

ETA: the part you're missing? They were good for college they weren't yet All-pros at the NFL level. If you based it on their NFL production and not their college for each player than sure. Add thats just one of a whole host of factors that tips it to any NFL team.

I did, and AI said our cornerbacks were Nate Hobbs and Jack Jones. The other day I asked AI how Mendoza would stack up to recent QB's drafted in the first round and it claimed Mendoza was a 4th round prospect.

AI is inconsistent when it comes to sports info.

[Willmark]

The same Sanders who barely completed 50% of his passes and led his team to 270 total yds. he had way less to do with that victory than the defense did leading with 10 sacks & Judkins getting 2 tds

This debate is ages old but there's simply no way am college team is going to beat an NFL team

I agree with you (mostly) but there is a 1-5% chance depending on the team that might win. But in general there are too many factors in favor of the NFL team.