Emo Andy Dalton after a trip to Sephora on Groundhog Day (Carr thread)
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RaiderandBulldog
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Attyla
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[quote=Willmark post_id=1038921]Since he wont answer me, I'll reply to you with this bit of information:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm
Lets use this for some sort of metric for discussion then, aka what constitutes average? Or as is being claimed "above average" with nothing other than a statement to back it up.
Looking at this lets say its 100% valid for the sake of argument: an average HoF QB ranks at 104. So an average QB should be what, half that? Aka a score of 52.
Derek Carr?
34.33
So that's actually below average.
Granted not scientific but at least that's something other than a blanket statement with nothing to back it up.[/quote]yes, not an infallible ranking by any means but take away the raw numbers of yards and TDs his flaws would keep him out of the top 10 in my mind.
And I would agree with chucker that we should not give him 35M on a contract. After this season where he started out gangbusters only to wilt a bit as the season went on, only to wilt more further down the road, let him play out his contract and then franchise him and then franchise him again. He will be 33 by then. A contract for a 33 year old would likely be more reasonable.
That being said, he is getting his deal this off season I think, and it will be a big one
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm
Lets use this for some sort of metric for discussion then, aka what constitutes average? Or as is being claimed "above average" with nothing other than a statement to back it up.
Looking at this lets say its 100% valid for the sake of argument: an average HoF QB ranks at 104. So an average QB should be what, half that? Aka a score of 52.
Derek Carr?
34.33
So that's actually below average.
Granted not scientific but at least that's something other than a blanket statement with nothing to back it up.[/quote]yes, not an infallible ranking by any means but take away the raw numbers of yards and TDs his flaws would keep him out of the top 10 in my mind.
And I would agree with chucker that we should not give him 35M on a contract. After this season where he started out gangbusters only to wilt a bit as the season went on, only to wilt more further down the road, let him play out his contract and then franchise him and then franchise him again. He will be 33 by then. A contract for a 33 year old would likely be more reasonable.
That being said, he is getting his deal this off season I think, and it will be a big one
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heavyD
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[quote=chucker post_id=1038893]It's not pointless to compare our QB to the QB on the other side, even if it seems unfair because ours is inferior. There are also much better QBs than ours who weren't first overall picks, and some who weren't even top 10 picks. IMO we likely stick with Carr in 2022 as our QB but I hope we don't give him an extension, and I hope we at least try to draft the next guy if there's an opportunity for a guy who may turn into something.[/quote]The team finally made the playoffs and had a somewhat successful season given all the turmoil and some fans want to burn it down and go back to the lottery game of drafting QB's where the odds always highly favor bust. Personally I would like to ride this out a bit longer before tearing things down.
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Willmark
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[quote=chucker post_id=1038928]Even us "haters" want him to be great. He just isn't. I don't know about you, but I was a real believer from 2014-2016 as I thought he was an ascending talent who could take it to the elite level, and play by play he wore me down to where I'm at now. I'm man enough to admit I was an idiot.[/quote]I was a true believer till the last game of 2018 against KC.
I remember as do my kids shouting "NO!" when he broke his leg on Christmas eve.
I've given him the benefit of the doubt season after season and hope he gets better and then we see the same thing year in and year out.
There comes a point when enough is enough. For some there never will be enough as they are fans of him, first and foremost. While I can't fathom that mentality its their right to fan that way. As it is ours to say its time to move on if possible.
I remember as do my kids shouting "NO!" when he broke his leg on Christmas eve.
I've given him the benefit of the doubt season after season and hope he gets better and then we see the same thing year in and year out.
There comes a point when enough is enough. For some there never will be enough as they are fans of him, first and foremost. While I can't fathom that mentality its their right to fan that way. As it is ours to say its time to move on if possible.
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chucker
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[quote=heavyD post_id=1038931]The team finally made the playoffs and had a somewhat successful season given all the turmoil and some fans want to burn it down and go back to the lottery game of drafting QB's where the odds always highly favor bust. Personally I would like to ride this out a bit longer before tearing things down.[/quote]I don't want to burn it down, I just want to hedge our bets because I don't think we have our guy. But I'll let the new coach keep Carr for a year and try to fix him as long as we also draft a potential next guy. I know the new coach will be happy I'm willing to allow that. It feels good to have power.
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Xramfan
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https://preview.redd.it/ef3uwoxut7b81.p ... 083388d71c
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr
QBR from games last night
Allen 98.5
Burrow 62.9
Jones 59.8
Carr 39.4
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr
QBR from games last night
Allen 98.5
Burrow 62.9
Jones 59.8
Carr 39.4
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Jeremyturner1976
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[quote=Attyla post_id=1038764]there is no one right way to build a team[/quote]Yes, but results in the last 10 NFL years shows 2 rookie QBs winning it all and Wentz/Foles at 1 million doing the same.
Zero QBs making 12+ percent of a teams cap winning one.
That says there is...
Zero QBs making 12+ percent of a teams cap winning one.
That says there is...
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BluegrassRaider
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[quote=Attyla post_id=1038819]And I do not get it, he can move the ball pretty fluidly between the 20s.
What we did not see last night was Carr challenging the deep part of the field. I do not recall one pass in the air for 20+ yards, I may be wrong, by the third quarter I was drinking the tequila (Espolon Blanco)[/quote]The game speeds up another half heartbeat, the windows tighten, the field is concentrated for the defense to focus on, and more than ever you have to be able to get to that second and third read really quickly.
You aren't nearly as often scheming your way to a wide open target to "spin it to" and sometimes you have to stand tall, deliver, and take the hit while trusting your receiver to make a play and come down with the contested ball.
We've seen the game played through different eras but production in this part of the field hasn't changed all that much and has long been how one differentiates the wheat from the chaff.
Similar with third down.
It isn't mysterious at all. People fixate on the passer and blow off the quarterback. Physical ability over position based skill almost entirely seems to be the fixation if it is actually football driven at all.
Paying 30-40 million a year for that level of on the field ability is crippling and automatically lowers the ceiling on the whole franchise. You cannot chase the market and have to suck it up and try again with a lower cost vet and/or a rookie deal because to do otherwise it is a lock you will not be competing.
That isn't opinion but a real life assessment of NFL rosters over now many years.
If the guy is not a stud then you have to let him go due to the market forces in the league and even if he is a stud you still have to think long and hard because of the ripple effect of the investment and even accept the real possibility of being a perennial contender but may never grab the brass ring again.
That is a call one has to probably make 999,999/1,000,000 though but in our circumstances it is courting disaster in a desperate and nearly always vain effort to be okayish and then hope to strike on lightning in a bottle along the way.
What we did not see last night was Carr challenging the deep part of the field. I do not recall one pass in the air for 20+ yards, I may be wrong, by the third quarter I was drinking the tequila (Espolon Blanco)[/quote]The game speeds up another half heartbeat, the windows tighten, the field is concentrated for the defense to focus on, and more than ever you have to be able to get to that second and third read really quickly.
You aren't nearly as often scheming your way to a wide open target to "spin it to" and sometimes you have to stand tall, deliver, and take the hit while trusting your receiver to make a play and come down with the contested ball.
We've seen the game played through different eras but production in this part of the field hasn't changed all that much and has long been how one differentiates the wheat from the chaff.
Similar with third down.
It isn't mysterious at all. People fixate on the passer and blow off the quarterback. Physical ability over position based skill almost entirely seems to be the fixation if it is actually football driven at all.
Paying 30-40 million a year for that level of on the field ability is crippling and automatically lowers the ceiling on the whole franchise. You cannot chase the market and have to suck it up and try again with a lower cost vet and/or a rookie deal because to do otherwise it is a lock you will not be competing.
That isn't opinion but a real life assessment of NFL rosters over now many years.
If the guy is not a stud then you have to let him go due to the market forces in the league and even if he is a stud you still have to think long and hard because of the ripple effect of the investment and even accept the real possibility of being a perennial contender but may never grab the brass ring again.
That is a call one has to probably make 999,999/1,000,000 though but in our circumstances it is courting disaster in a desperate and nearly always vain effort to be okayish and then hope to strike on lightning in a bottle along the way.
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toobscruiser
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[quote=chucker post_id=1038937]I don't want to burn it down, I just want to hedge our bets because I don't think we have our guy. But I'll let the new coach keep Carr for a year and try to fix him as long as we also draft a potential next guy. I know the new coach will be happy I'm willing to allow that. It feels good to have power.[/quote]This would be best case scenario for most I think
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Jeremyturner1976
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[quote=toobscruiser post_id=1038912]Top ten every year until Gruden came along. Bottom 20 every year after. Pretty easy to see Gruden was a factor in the decline[/quote]I don't see that. Can you link your source?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshDubowAP/ ... SA4pMpAAAA
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshDubowAP/ ... SA4pMpAAAA
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Devilspawn
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One stat that infuriated me during the season was total yards. It was the go-to for the QB ranking. Networks would put it up and you saw Carr at #2 for a large chunk in the middle of the season and then 3, top 5 for most of the season. Brady was #1 and Carr was breathing down his neck, sometimes less than 30 yards behind him.
One of those weeks, I filtered the list by TDs. Made me sick when I saw Carr was something in the 12 or 13 range. That's why every time I saw the yardage stat I told the analyst to shut the f[raiders_icon]ck up. Yards don't mean shit when it comes to QB stats if touchdowns aren't consistently being thrown.
Carr should get a tithe from Carlson's contract because if it wasn't for him, we wouldn't know how clutch Carlson is. I'm still in Carr's corner because he's in Silver & Black but dammit man, get that ball in the f[raiders_icon]cking end zone.
One of those weeks, I filtered the list by TDs. Made me sick when I saw Carr was something in the 12 or 13 range. That's why every time I saw the yardage stat I told the analyst to shut the f[raiders_icon]ck up. Yards don't mean shit when it comes to QB stats if touchdowns aren't consistently being thrown.
Carr should get a tithe from Carlson's contract because if it wasn't for him, we wouldn't know how clutch Carlson is. I'm still in Carr's corner because he's in Silver & Black but dammit man, get that ball in the f[raiders_icon]cking end zone.
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toobscruiser
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A look at last weeks two point conversion call pretty much sums up our red zone offense the last four years
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Raidernation1979
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[quote=Willmark post_id=1038933]I was a true believer till the last game of 2018 against KC.
I remember as do my kids shouting "NO!" when he broke his leg on Christmas eve.
I've given him the benefit of the doubt season after season and hope he gets better and then we see the same thing year in and year out.
There comes a point when enough is enough. For some there never will be enough as they are fans of him, first and foremost. While I can't fathom that mentality its their right to fan that way. As it is ours to say its time to move on if possible.[/quote]Same for me. That KC game turned me on Carr
I remember as do my kids shouting "NO!" when he broke his leg on Christmas eve.
I've given him the benefit of the doubt season after season and hope he gets better and then we see the same thing year in and year out.
There comes a point when enough is enough. For some there never will be enough as they are fans of him, first and foremost. While I can't fathom that mentality its their right to fan that way. As it is ours to say its time to move on if possible.[/quote]Same for me. That KC game turned me on Carr
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mranquales
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Carr had 8 turnovers and couldn't score in the redzone and people are saying he's the reason we made it to the playoffs!-
BluegrassRaider
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[quote=Jeremyturner1976 post_id=1038952]I don't see that. Can you link your source?
https://twitter.com/JoshDubowAP/status/ ... SA4pMpAAAA[/quote]In other words consistently and always middling to poor after an eyebrow raising of a mirage rookie showing.
I believe third down likely is similar but with an uptick outlier last year to fuel a last desperate gasp of hope (at least for me, not much but a spark).
I remain well beyond flabbergasted that there is a debate but the existence of it does give hope that some sucker can be snookered as keeps happening across this league IF WE WILL SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY rather than desperately trying to hand to mouth keep what we have which in the big picture is about nothing anyway.
https://twitter.com/JoshDubowAP/status/ ... SA4pMpAAAA[/quote]In other words consistently and always middling to poor after an eyebrow raising of a mirage rookie showing.
I believe third down likely is similar but with an uptick outlier last year to fuel a last desperate gasp of hope (at least for me, not much but a spark).
I remain well beyond flabbergasted that there is a debate but the existence of it does give hope that some sucker can be snookered as keeps happening across this league IF WE WILL SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY rather than desperately trying to hand to mouth keep what we have which in the big picture is about nothing anyway.
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Fade2SilverAndBlack
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