Raiderstation

raidersince63 wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:55 am Yeah, I've been wondering about that lately too. He looked good vs OSU but as the playoffs progress he will face top defenses. So I'm kinda curious about how he will perform moving forward.

If he continues to impress his stock will obviously go up even more, but if he has a bad game how far will his stock fall?

OSU is the top ranked defense in college. Of course any player can have a bad game at any point in time. It's not going to tank his stock. All it's going to do is give the talking heads something else to talk about for the next 4 months

Finish the job, secure 1!

Cruisin with Tooz wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 10:54 pm Would you mind verifying how you are calculating SOS?

I was simply watching Tankathon and it seemed like every game as it finished moved the SOS .002.
If I were to calculate it. We play 17 games. Our opponents play 17 games. 17x17=289
1/289=.0034
So that doesn't match the .002 I witnessed on Tankathon, so not sure what to say about that. Maybe there's something I'm missing.

Raider Nation wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:22 am Doesn’t it push our lead to .012? We play KC twice this (every) year, so our win swings it .004, the jets play Buff twice also, so their lose swings it .004 as well…..

Good catch, I think you are correct there. In that case it would make it impossible for them to overcome the lead. Or maybe they could tie at best.

Raider_Dave wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 9:23 pm Games that matter next week for SOS.

Jets: 3 Games that can swing their SOS. These are the 3 teams they played that they didn't play entire division.
Dallas @ Giants
Chargers @ Denver
Tenn @ Jax
Teams in bold were on Jets schedule, so we want them to win.

DrDUne wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 2:13 pm

The Jets odds were extremely long to begin with (like 1% long). Herbert sitting vs a team actively pursuing a 1st round bye is another nail in the Jet draft coffin, as it were.

In my opinion our O-line should be our main concern after QB. Kolton Miller is getting close to the down swing of his career and is getting injury prone, JPJ is injury prone and has had multiple concussions somehow, and we dont really have anyone else.

rich72 wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:00 pm In my opinion our O-line should be our main concern after QB. Kolton Miller is getting close to the down swing of his career and is getting injury prone, JPJ is injury prone and has had multiple concussions somehow, and we dont really have anyone else.

I like JPJ but don’t trust him to stay healthy. If he can stay healthy he can be a stud at C or G. For that reason I’d back the truck up for Linderbaum.

LayneStaley wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:05 pm I like JPJ but don’t trust him to stay healthy. If he can stay healthy he can be a stud at C or G. For that reason I’d back the truck up for Linderbaum.

Linderbaum was a guy I had my eye on in the draft before we traded our picks for Adams. Would love to get him here until he retires.

Falcons winning would be another nail in the coffin for the jets

Raider_Dave wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 10:16 am I was simply watching Tankathon and it seemed like every game as it finished moved the SOS .002.
If I were to calculate it. We play 17 games. Our opponents play 17 games. 17x17=289
1/289=.0034
So that doesn't match the .002 I witnessed on Tankathon, so not sure what to say about that. Maybe there's something I'm missing.






Good catch, I think you are correct there. In that case it would make it impossible for them to overcome the lead. Or maybe they could tie at best.

The problem is trying to work directly with SOS, rather than the direct precursor to SOS, (OWT) opponent win total. OWT is a simple counting statistic. To try and combine what a single game outcome does to the before-the-game SOS to give you the after-the-game SOS, you have to do a weighted average of the SOS going into the game and the 100% win percentage of that one game(if that game is a win) or the 0% win percentage (if that game is a loss). Ill give you the formula for that to show you how cumbersome and difficult it is to work directly with SOS, and why its far easier and less confusing to work with OWT, which is what determines SOS in the first place.

If x is the current cumulative number of games of all of your opponents, to calculate the new SOS after a game that your opponent wins use:

new SOS= (x/(x+1) * old SOS) + 1/(x+1) and then you update x to x+1 for the next game calculation.

To make it more complicated, if it was a divisional opponent, you would instead use:

newSOS= (x/(x+2) * old SOS) + 2/(x+2)

If that game resulted in a loss for an opponent, the formula would be:

newSOS = x/(x+1) * old SOS

So for example lets say SOS is .500 and then an opponent loses a game and going into that game cumulative number of opponent games was 272. So you multiply .500 by 272/273. And you get .498. Then update x to 273. If it was a win instead multiply .5 by 272/273 then add 1/273. And you get .502. You can see the reason you get a result .002 higher and not .0035 higher with a win by noticing that equation has 2 terms. The 1st term returns a value lower than the oldSOS and the 2nd term is what adds the .0035, that you calculated.

The bottom line is for the Love of God ; for all things right and true; for the sake of our nation; and to make America great again, dont work directly with SOS. Its far easier to work with a simple counting stat like OWT:

New OWT = Old OWT + z
where z=1 if a nondivisional opponent wins; 2 if a divisional opponent wins; 1/2 for an opponent who has a tie.
Then you can directly compare one team's OWT to another to see how far ahead or behind you are. Easy peasy.

And......
The jets cant win the 1st tiebreaker outright even if they sweep the slate of 7 key games (the 6 you identified plus tonight's LAR-theATL game). What they can do is tie the 1st tiebreaker by sweeping that slate of 7 games. If that happens, it goes to the 3rd tiebreaker (conference record) since there was no head to head meet. The Jets would win that 3rd tiebreaker because LV would have 3 conference wins to the Jets 2 wins. The chance of this is extremely low. 1 percentish.

DanKD wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:44 pm Falcons winning would be another nail in the coffin for the jets

https://casketemporium.com/product/new- ... ts-casket/

rich72 wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:00 pm In my opinion our O-line should be our main concern after QB. Kolton Miller is getting close to the down swing of his career and is getting injury prone, JPJ is injury prone and has had multiple concussions somehow, and we dont really have anyone else.

Oline should've been the main concern heading into this last offseason and draft. Anyone Thinking this line was ok with Glaze, Parham, Meredith and Cappa as starters was an idiot. Instead this genius team takes a rb at 6 overall

Cruisin with Tooz wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 6:49 pm https://casketemporium.com/product/new- ... ts-casket/

Is that officially licensed by the NFL?

DrDUne wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 2:13 pm

Won't be surprised if we hear Cowboys sitting Dak for last game also.

Toast wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 6:58 pm Is that officially licensed by the NFL?

That doesnt look like the Jets logo so I dont think the NFL or the Jets can do anything. They dont own green, white, "NY" or the word "Jets". To do this:

https://www.teamfancave.com/products/ne ... gL5NvD_BwE

they would have to be licensed.