Raiderstation

Raider_Dave wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 9:23 pm Games that matter next week for SOS.

Jets: 3 Games that can swing their SOS. These are the 3 teams they played that they didn't play entire division.
Dallas @ Giants
Chargers @ Denver
Tenn @ Jax
Teams in bold were on Jets schedule, so we want them to win.

Raiders: these are the 3 teams that we didn't play entire divsion.
Detroit @ Chicago
Cleveland @ Cinn
Miami @ New England
Teams in bold were on Raiders schedule, so we want them to lose.
A win or loss by any of the 3 teams on Jets or Raiders schedule will swing SOS up or down .002

Arent these 6 games, 6 of the 8 games on the slate I posted? The other 2 being tomorrow's game (LAR-ATL) and the SF-CHI game? Now that the SF-CHI game is in the books, how many of those 7 games have to go the Jets way for them to win the SOS tiebreaker?

Raider_Dave wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 9:23 pm Games that matter next week for SOS.

Jets: 3 Games that can swing their SOS. These are the 3 teams they played that they didn't play entire division.
Dallas @ Giants
Chargers @ Denver
Tenn @ Jax
Teams in bold were on Jets schedule, so we want them to win.

Raiders: these are the 3 teams that we didn't play entire divsion.
Detroit @ Chicago
Cleveland @ Cinn
Miami @ New England
Teams in bold were on Raiders schedule, so we want them to lose.
A win or loss by any of the 3 teams on Jets or Raiders schedule will swing SOS up or down .002

I dont think things change much.

Cincinnati will beat Cleveland. Dallas will beat the Giants —wash
Chicago will beat Detroit. Jax will beat Tennessee —wash
New England will beat Miami. Denver and LAC is a toss up…wont matter. Even if Chargers win, it’s only .04 change and currently Raiders are .06 worse SOS than Jets..

Even if Raiders beat Chiefs and Giants beat Cowboys (and Chargers beat Donks) Raiders and Jets would be tied SOS then it would move the next tie-breaker which I’ll leave to the experts to figure out. I’m thinking Denver’s gonna win at home vs ther Doltz though and Raider’s finish .02 better SOS. I would like the Raiders to be able to beat the Chiefs and still get the 1st pick, that would be a great scenario, but getting the top pick is best for the team’s future regardless..

Of course it’s all moot if we lose to the Chiefs.

Cruisin with Tooz wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 9:38 pm Arent these 6 games, 6 of the 8 games on the slate I posted? The other 2 being tomorrow's game (LAR-ATL) and the SF-CHI game? Now that the SF-CHI game is in the books, how many of those 7 games have to go the Jets way for them to win the SOS tiebreaker?

We'll assume the Rams win tomorrow. That would reduce our lead back to .004.
If we win next week and Jets lose, that should push our lead back to .008.
So with six games remaining it looks like this.
All 6 games go the Jets way. They pick up .012 and beat us by .004
5 games go the Jets way they pick up .008 and it's a tie.
4 games go their way, they pick up .004 and we still win by .004.
3, 2, 1, all good for us.

This is all based on a win or loss moving the SOS .002. It could be a little more or a little less than .002. They are rounding to 3 numbers. I'm not doing the math to figure that out. I think this is pretty accurate and looks pretty good for us.

DanKD wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:58 pm Thanks so it is mathematically possible though highly improbable

I guess your analysis wasnt very rigorous after all, was it, Mrs Dan?

Cruisin with Tooz wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 10:05 pm I guess your analysis wasnt very rigorous after all, was it, Mrs Dan?

Had to see about a girl

Raider_Dave wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 10:05 pm We'll assume the Rams win tomorrow. That would reduce our lead back to .004.
If we win next week and Jets lose, that should push our lead back to .008.
So with six games remaining it looks like this.
All 6 games go the Jets way. They pick up .012 and beat us by .004
5 games go the Jets way they pick up .008 and it's a tie.
4 games go their way, they pick up .004 and we still win by .004.
3, 2, 1, all good for us.

This is all based on a win or loss moving the SOS .002. It could be a little more or a little less than .002. They are rounding to 3 numbers. I'm not doing the math to figure that out. I think this is pretty accurate and looks pretty good for us.

Would you mind verifying how you are calculating SOS?

Update after the SF win:
7 games left on the Jets slate. Team on the left are "our" teams. Teams on the right are the Jets team.
ATL v LAR
CIN v CLE
DAL v NYG
DET v CHI
DEN v LAC
MIA v NE
JAX v TEN
If both teams finish 3-14, the only way for the Jets to get the tiebreaker is to sweep all 7 games. That would result in a tied tiebreaker #1. Jets would get the nod based on tiebreaker #3 (conference record). About a 1% chance for the Jets in this scenario.

4 games left on the Giants slate. Team on the left are "our" teams. Teams on the right are the Giants team.
CIN v CLE
DET v CHI
NO v ATL
SF v SEA
If both teams finish 3-14, the only way for the Raiders to get the tiebreaker is to take any 3 of those 4 games. That would result in a tied tiebreaker #1. Raiders would get the nod based on tiebreaker #2 (head to head play). About a 30% chance for the Raiders in this scenario.

Overall (assuming 35% chance of beating KC and 45% chance that NYG beat Dal)
1st pick 91%
2nd pick 8.7%
3rd pick 0.3%

I hate to watch my Raiders lose and look so inept, but the NFL made this league a QB dominated one so if you don’t have one, you don’t compete. It’s time to swing. I hope Moore declares too so there’s actually something to choose from.

HesterLayes wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:28 pm We could barely score against the giants…chiefs d is no joke..that titan game was an anomaly

It helps that pete has probably lost the locker room at this point and no one cares.

Just lose, baby. In case we win, I think the Jets might beat the Bills (who really do not have much to play for and Josh may be resting his foot). With a win, I think we will still be a top 3 pick (with the Giants who do not need a QB leap frogging us along with maybe the Jets).

Raider_Dave wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 10:05 pm
If we win next week and Jets lose, that should push our lead back to .008.

Doesn’t it push our lead to .012? We play KC twice this (every) year, so our win swings it .004, the jets play Buff twice also, so their lose swings it .004 as well…..

Cruisin with Tooz wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 11:41 pm

4 games left on the Giants slate. Team on the left are "our" teams. Teams on the right are the Giants team.
CIN v CLE
DET v CHI
NO v ATL
SF v SEA
If both teams finish 3-14, the only way for the Raiders to get the tiebreaker is to take any 3 of those 4 games. That would result in a tied tiebreaker #1. Raiders would get the nod based on tiebreaker #2 (head to head play).

I like our chances:

Cinc & NO almost certainly win, there is a decent chance either SF or Det win next week.

pfish57 wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 6:33 pm His stock might drop after facing a SEC D next week..just saying;)

Yeah, I've been wondering about that lately too. He looked good vs OSU but as the playoffs progress he will face top defenses. So I'm kinda curious about how he will perform moving forward.

If he continues to impress his stock will obviously go up even more, but if he has a bad game how far will his stock fall?

So Mendoza could be lost by 1/1000 of a point...

Sounds something Raider like...

Sold My Soul wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 9:16 pm Though the team's chance of securing the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL draft moved to 80% after the loss, according to ESPN Analytics, that was the last thing on some players' minds after a 10th straight defeat dropped the Raiders to 2-14.

"I hate that's what people are saying or thinking," Raiders defensive tackle Jonah Laulu said. "We're not trying to lose. I'm trying to go out and do my best because I don't know if I'm going to be here next year."

If y'all are trying to tank, don't throw it my way then," Stokes told ESPN. "The same thing Maxx said, I'm trying to be the best person I can be. If anybody is trying to tank, y'all might as well take me out, too.

"We've got a lot of young guys that are really good," Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker said. "... We're super close but far away at the same time."

Say what Tre?

Again players don't tank. At least not on purpose. This team is just that bad