The Tankathon thread,i.e., the 2026 Draft

[KillerRaider30]

https://www.tankathon.com/nfl

[Be_Easy_25]

Fernando or Dante?

[Cruisin with Tooz]

Sorry Mrs. Tooz, ill show my work next time.

I did the analysis you don't have to believe me though

You went game by game on the last 18 games, assumed that each game that mattered went in the Jets favor and that wasnt enough for them to overcome the 1 win lead that we had going into the Sunday night game?

[Raider_Dave]

Everyone has to keep in mind we have to win and jets lose for sos to matter with them. That in itself is a huge swing for us in the sos tiebreaker. There are not enough unique opponents from the other games for jets to make up that swing

I don't think this is true. Each win or loss for an opponent swings the SOS approx .002. Our current lead is only .006. Rams likely beat Falcons tomorrow night so our lead will be back to .004. Going into final week.
So if we win and Jets lose that moves our lead to .008.
There will be 3 games that can move the Jets SOS up or down up to .006, and 3 games that could move our SOS up or down up to .006. If we gain .006 and the Jets lose .006, they pass us by .004

[ALLRAIDERWORLD21]

How do you figure that?
With every game next week being intradivisional, only a few games will make a difference.
For us, 2 teams in the AFC West will win next week and 2 will lose. So no change. Same with 2 divisions we played. The NFC East and the AFC South.
Jets will be in the same situation with their division and the 2 divisions they played.
Each team played 3 games outside of those division matchups.
Raiders played: Bears, Browns, Pats. So we want those teams to lose
Jets played: Cowboys Broncos, Jags. We want these teams to win. Yet we also might want the Cowboys to lose since they are playing Giants.

The Pats also play the Jets, so them winning makes the Jets SOS tougher since they played them twice. So the Pats winning or losing just like Cowboys winning or losing to the Giants is a win win for the Raiders as long as Raider lose to Chiefs. If Giants beat the Cowboys then the Raiders could beat the Chiefs and still have the first pick is my understanding.

[Cruisin with Tooz]

So we have a 96ish % chance of picking top 2? I feel comfortable we are picking top 2 then. Honestly after what I saw today I don’t think there’s a chance in hell we win next week.

Its higher now that SF beat Chi. The Jets had only 1 mulligan left, and they just used it. Now they have zero mulligans. They have to run the table of 7 games. Its more like 1 in 128 or around 1%.

[DanKD]

I don't think this is true. Each win or loss for an opponent swings the SOS approx .002. Our current lead is only .006. Rams likely beat Falcons tomorrow night so our lead will be back to .004. Going into final week.
So if we win and Jets lose that moves our lead to .008.
There will be 3 games that can move the Jets SOS up or down up to .006, and 3 games that could move our SOS up or down up to .006. If we gain .006 and the Jets lose .006, they pass us by .004

Thanks so it is mathematically possible though highly improbable

[Raider_Dave]

The Pats also play the Jets, so them winning makes the Jets SOS tougher since they played them twice. So the Pats winning or losing just like Cowboys winning or losing to the Giants is a win win for the Raiders as long as Raider lose to Chiefs. If Giants beat the Cowboys then the Raiders could beat the Chiefs and still have the first pick is my understanding.

Patriots game will have no impact on Jets SOS. Pats play Dolphins. Jets played them both twice, so it's a wash. Pats win increases our SOS and loss lowers our SOS.

[pfish57]

There is only one obstacle between us & the 1st pick...f[raiders_icon]ck all these scenarios...it's all in Fat Andys hands and I really don't think he gives 2 f[raiders_icon]cks about the Raiders other than beating us down like he has done for umpteen years lol

[Reno Hightower]

There is only one obstacle between us & the 1st pick...fck all these scenarios...it's all in Fat Andys hands and I really don't think he gives to fcks about the Raiders other than beating us down like he has done for umpteen years lol

YouTube has some excellent statistical tutorials if you need help with the math.

[pfish57]

YouTube has some excellent statistical tutorials if you need help with the math.

I know where you can get some second hand weed smoke, but it's your call...I wouldn't want you to get to mindlessly f[raiders_icon]cked up...I really care junior:) It's pretty simple 2-15 takes the prize lol

[Sold My Soul]

Though the team's chance of securing the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL draft moved to 80% after the loss, according to ESPN Analytics, that was the last thing on some players' minds after a 10th straight defeat dropped the Raiders to 2-14.

"I hate that's what people are saying or thinking," Raiders defensive tackle Jonah Laulu said. "We're not trying to lose. I'm trying to go out and do my best because I don't know if I'm going to be here next year."

If y'all are trying to tank, don't throw it my way then," Stokes told ESPN. "The same thing Maxx said, I'm trying to be the best person I can be. If anybody is trying to tank, y'all might as well take me out, too.

"We've got a lot of young guys that are really good," Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker said. "... We're super close but far away at the same time."

Say what Tre?

[Reno Hightower]

Fernando or Dante?

I think its safe to say that the armored blitzkrieg accomplished its objective. Now it's up to the team to not f[raiders_icon]ck up the draft. Should be an interesting discussion topic for the next four months.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/474 ... t-top-pick

[Raider_Dave]

Games that matter next week for SOS.

Jets: 3 Games that can swing their SOS. These are the 3 teams they played that they didn't play entire division.
Dallas @ Giants
Chargers @ Denver
Tenn @ Jax
Teams in bold were on Jets schedule, so we want them to win.

Raiders: these are the 3 teams that we didn't play entire divsion.
Detroit @ Chicago
Cleveland @ Cinn
Miami @ New England
Teams in bold were on Raiders schedule, so we want them to lose.
A win or loss by any of the 3 teams on Jets or Raiders schedule will swing SOS up or down .002

[ALLRAIDERWORLD21]

Patriots game will have no impact on Jets SOS. Pats play Dolphins. Jets played them both twice, so it's a wash. Pats win increases our SOS and loss lowers our SOS.

That’s right, the Jets play the Bills who are playing for 6 or7 seed, so Jets are losing most likely. That said as was mentioned before here, Bears losing just lowered Raider SOS since we played them. I think the Jets need alot of help now to overcome Raiders SOS regardless of whether we beat the Chiefs or not. I prefer Mendoza, but I’ll take Moore as I'm betting he will show out in the playoffs and declare for NFL. It’s like Drake Maye-Caleb situation—just give me one of them and hot shot co-ordinator who wants to coach them, I don’t care anymore, Im not able to handle these “just add water” rehydrated QBs and retread and or overhyped coaches anymore..

[DanKD]

Games that matter next week for SOS.

Jets: 3 Games that can swing their SOS. These are the 3 teams they played that they didn't play entire division.
Dallas @ Giants
Chargers @ Denver
Tenn @ Jax
Teams in bold were on Jets schedule, so we want them to win.

Raiders: these are the 3 teams that we didn't play entire divsion.
Detroit @ Chicago
Cleveland @ Cinn
Miami @ New England
Teams in bold were on Raiders schedule, so we want them to lose.
A win or loss by any of the 3 teams on Jets or Raiders schedule will swing SOS up or down .002

Thanks for the breakdown! Though id argue we still want the giants to win as that would truly guarentee #2 and possibly #1 even with a win.