Raiderstation

Raider_Dave wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:09 pm Doesn't work like that.
Screenshot 2025-12-28 200552.png
So next weeks opponent record is already part of our SOS.

I didn’t know that they calculated teams before the games against them were played. Glad you were there to correct me Dave.

LayneStaley wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:15 pm Excellent work, what are the odds the jets pass us if we win and they lose? Or more simply what are the odds off the Raiders having 2nd pick with a win over KC and a Jets loss.

I don't think they can. If we win and jets lose that 1 game difference goes to 3 games and because it's all division opponents and we have some common opponents according to what i am seeing we are guaranteed #2

Just lose out and keep it simple

We could barely score against the giants…chiefs d is no joke..that titan game was an anomaly

DanKD wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:16 pm No they can't. A win means we increase the sos distance and almost all other games are split.

That is not a rigorous analysis.

Cruisin with Tooz wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:29 pm That is not a rigorous analysis.

Sorry Mrs. Tooz, ill show my work next time.

I did the analysis you don't have to believe me though

LayneStaley wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:15 pm Excellent work, what are the odds the jets pass us if we win and they lose? Or more simply what are the odds off the Raiders having 2nd pick with a win over KC and a Jets loss.

What I posted is that scenario. Jets and Raiders finish 3-14. Ballpark 4% chance Jets wind up with tiebreaker.

Our SOS should drop a point or two with Bears losing.

EDIT: Tankathon is fast. We went from .544 to .542

Things are looking up. We just took 1 game on the Jets slate and 1 game on the Giants slate. I thought Chicago was going to screw us again like last week.

DanKD wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:31 pm Sorry Mrs. Tooz, ill show my work next time.

I did the analysis you don't have to believe me though

Let me make sure I understand what youre saying. Are you claiming it is mathematically impossible for the Jets to pass us if both teams finish 3-14?

Everyone has to keep in mind we have to win and jets lose for sos to matter with them. That in itself is a huge swing for us in the sos tiebreaker. There are not enough unique opponents from the other games for jets to make up that swing

So we have a 96ish % chance of picking top 2? I feel comfortable we are picking top 2 then. Honestly after what I saw today I don’t think there’s a chance in hell we win next week.

Cruisin with Tooz wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:37 pm Let me make sure I understand what youre saying. Are you claiming it is mathematically impossible for the Jets to pass us if both teams finish 3-14?

Yes thats what I'm saying. It's because almost all of both teams opponents are guaranteed to split (cause they all play each other). And we have to win and jets lose which helps us in sos (still better to lose obviously since we get #1)

HesterLayes wrote: Sun Dec 28, 2025 8:28 pm We could barely score against the giants…chiefs d is no joke..that titan game was an anomaly

Spagnoulo will put this goatfuck of a season out of its misery.

It's not over till it's over!