Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

[NoThanksSir]

There is a situation developing with Tre Tucker that is going under the radar. Tucker is a FA this offseason, and while he leaves a lot to be desired in a #1WR after Bowers, he unfortunately is our best WR. I'm not his biggest fan by any means, but even if we take a WR with our 1st pick in 2027 we're still in a precarious situation if he were to walk in free agency. Rookie receivers, especially those taken outside of the top 10, are rarely immediate contributors. I'm skeptical that a Rookie+Nailor/Bech/etc. will produce better results than what we have now. This is even more pressing of an issue because Mendoza will be playing next year, and that is a god awful situation for our prized QB prospect to be walking into. I think even if we assume that first pick is a receiver, we need to consider that another move at WR will need to accompany that selection. That could be re-signing Tucker, going after a more expensive #1, or seeking out a veteran bandaid while a rookie receiver develops. Of course there is option D, none of the above. Which I personally think would be a recipe for disaster, as the other talent on this roster hasn't shown enough potential.

2027 FA WRs

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These are the options other than Tucker in 2027. One important thing to note, is that the only players on the list younger than Tucker are Marvin Mims and George Pickens (By 4 days). My theory is that Tucker is going to have a lot more interest than any of us realize, and might be more coveted by another team than he is by us. Right now Tucker is on pace for a career year. If he continues his average of 59 yards a game, he can reasonably finish the season around 1K yards. While I feel like he leaves a lot to be desired as a player, if we compare him to someone who recently signed a contract with similar career numbers, what could we learn about Tucker's value?

Control Group: Tre Tucker

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Ex 1: Michael Wilson, Cardinals, 26 Yrs old

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Last offseason Wilson signed a 3yr, $75 mill extension at an APY of $25mill a year. His age and numbers are very similar to Tucker's. On top of that, both players are having very similar years in 2026, you could argue Tucker is playing quite a bit better. But let's assume Wilson's contract is a product of a poor Cardinal's org. Let's move on to another example.

Ex 2. Christian Watson, Packers, 27 Yrs old

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Watson also signed an extension last year, this one at an APY of $23mill a year. His career production is similar to Tucker, he seems to be a better red zone player than Tucker is.

Ex. 3 Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars, 30 Yrs old

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This last comp is more of a stretch, but valid because he was in the building and we moved on from him due to a perceived lack of value when it came to a contract extension. I would argue Jakobi Meyers's $20 mill APY is Tucker's floor. I was one of the loudest when it came to Jakobi not being worth what he was going to get paid, and I think the greater conclusion to make here is that mid level WR's are being paid handsomely across the board for very little on field production. Tucker is currently outperforming Meyers in 2026.

So now we have established the general range for Tucker's comps are between $20-25 mill a year. If we decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze, it's worth taking a look at more expensive options while we're at it.

Ex. JSN, Drake London, & Zay Flowers

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All three of these players recently signed contracts at the following APYs ($42.2, 35.2, 35). The main two high end receiver targets for this upcoming offseason (If they hit the open market) will be Nacua and Pickens.

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London and Zay aren't remotely on the same level as Nacua or Pickens. I think JSN is the rare example of a guy setting the market and then defending his position as the #1, as he's clearly still the best WR in the league. Those other guys set the floor at $35.2 mill, but both Nacua and Pickens will probably be more in line with JSN's $42.2. So a roughly $18 mill price difference from Tucker's group.


There are some guys in between those two groups who might be worth a look as budgetary options, especially those older than Tucker. But I thought this would be an interesting enough way to kick off the discussion by showing what the WR market is looking like right now, so that we could reasonably put into context what it will cost us to improve the position next year. Is simply drafting a WR a good enough plan in 2027? Do you want to keep Tucker? Or maybe sign someone else?

[Xramfan]

Tucker has a half a season left to make his case as to what his future is. Kubiak is more than impressed with his conditioning and work ethic but lets see how his game grows or doesnt grow over the next several games.

[ALLRAIDERWORLD21]

Tucker is open alot

[mranquales]

Only one on the list below is ever talked about as a top receiver. That’s chase.


2024 Marvin Harrison Jr. #4 Arizona Cardinals Ohio State
2024 Malik Nabers #6 New York Giants LSU
2024 Rome Odunze #9 Chicago Bears Washington
2022 Drake London #8 Atlanta Falcons
USC
2022 Garrett Wilson #10 New York Jets
Ohio State
2021 Ja'Marr Chase #5 Cincinnati Bengals LSU
2021 Jaylen Waddle #6 Miami Dolphins Alabama
2021 DeVonta Smith #10 Philadelphia Eagles

Are you kidding? DeVonta Smith? Drake London? Malik Nabers? The Raiders would kill to have those guys on our team right now.

Brock Bowers would break records if he had Drake London as X to take the CB1 away.

[Attyla]

On a team that features two tight ends, and already has a possession receiver in Bech, I don't see Becker as an obvious upgrade over Tucker. I think Tucker could have a better 2027 than him. Doesn't seem like a fit for us tbh. Coleman is interesting but I still think relying on guys like him or Becker to produce is a recipe for disaster. This is the value of retaining Tucker

Charlie Becker is the second best WR in the draft class. He is also very familiar with Mendoza. He is also a back shoulder ball hawk. That is Mendoza's bread and butter throw on the wing. Tucker is no where near what you get with Becker and he is not a slot. He has jets and gets separation. He will be a guy in the vein of Rice (not comparing the two other than style of play.) His vertical skills are great with a solid ability to hawk the ball. He has the frame, the speed and the skills. An actual comparison of skills is Cris Collinsworth at his peak but a bit faster and his grab ratio will be higher because he has better hands. He is a 1K receiver with the ability to catch 10 TDs per year.