Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

[NoThanksSir]

There is a situation developing with Tre Tucker that is going under the radar. Tucker is a FA this offseason, and while he leaves a lot to be desired in a #1WR after Bowers, he unfortunately is our best WR. I'm not his biggest fan by any means, but even if we take a WR with our 1st pick in 2027 we're still in a precarious situation if he were to walk in free agency. Rookie receivers, especially those taken outside of the top 10, are rarely immediate contributors. I'm skeptical that a Rookie+Nailor/Bech/etc. will produce better results than what we have now. This is even more pressing of an issue because Mendoza will be playing next year, and that is a god awful situation for our prized QB prospect to be walking into. I think even if we assume that first pick is a receiver, we need to consider that another move at WR will need to accompany that selection. That could be re-signing Tucker, going after a more expensive #1, or seeking out a veteran bandaid while a rookie receiver develops. Of course there is option D, none of the above. Which I personally think would be a recipe for disaster, as the other talent on this roster hasn't shown enough potential.

2027 FA WRs

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These are the options other than Tucker in 2027. One important thing to note, is that the only players on the list younger than Tucker are Marvin Mims and George Pickens (By 4 days). My theory is that Tucker is going to have a lot more interest than any of us realize, and might be more coveted by another team than he is by us. Right now Tucker is on pace for a career year. If he continues his average of 59 yards a game, he can reasonably finish the season around 1K yards. While I feel like he leaves a lot to be desired as a player, if we compare him to someone who recently signed a contract with similar career numbers, what could we learn about Tucker's value?

Control Group: Tre Tucker

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Ex 1: Michael Wilson, Cardinals, 26 Yrs old

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Last offseason Wilson signed a 3yr, $75 mill extension at an APY of $25mill a year. His age and numbers are very similar to Tucker's. On top of that, both players are having very similar years in 2026, you could argue Tucker is playing quite a bit better. But let's assume Wilson's contract is a product of a poor Cardinal's org. Let's move on to another example.

Ex 2. Christian Watson, Packers, 27 Yrs old

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Watson also signed an extension last year, this one at an APY of $23mill a year. His career production is similar to Tucker, he seems to be a better red zone player than Tucker is.

Ex. 3 Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars, 30 Yrs old

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This last comp is more of a stretch, but valid because he was in the building and we moved on from him due to a perceived lack of value when it came to a contract extension. I would argue Jakobi Meyers's $20 mill APY is Tucker's floor. I was one of the loudest when it came to Jakobi not being worth what he was going to get paid, and I think the greater conclusion to make here is that mid level WR's are being paid handsomely across the board for very little on field production. Tucker is currently outperforming Meyers in 2026.

So now we have established the general range for Tucker's comps are between $20-25 mill a year. If we decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze, it's worth taking a look at more expensive options while we're at it.

Ex. JSN, Drake London, & Zay Flowers

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All three of these players recently signed contracts at the following APYs ($42.2, 35.2, 35). The main two high end receiver targets for this upcoming offseason (If they hit the open market) will be Nacua and Pickens.

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London and Zay aren't remotely on the same level as Nacua or Pickens. I think JSN is the rare example of a guy setting the market and then defending his position as the #1, as he's clearly still the best WR in the league. Those other guys set the floor at $35.2 mill, but both Nacua and Pickens will probably be more in line with JSN's $42.2. So a roughly $18 mill price difference from Tucker's group.


There are some guys in between those two groups who might be worth a look as budgetary options, especially those older than Tucker. But I thought this would be an interesting enough way to kick off the discussion by showing what the WR market is looking like right now, so that we could reasonably put into context what it will cost us to improve the position next year. Is simply drafting a WR a good enough plan in 2027? Do you want to keep Tucker? Or maybe sign someone else?

[Reno Hightower]

The problem is that Tucker knows that if he become FA…he going to get paid by another team and he might be looking at a 15 to 20 million deal a season…so in order for the raiders to keep him; they are going to have to pay…..

At this moment; maybe offensive line will get better as the season progresses but the Raiders do need to invest in at least a guard and a tackle; Miller is not getting any younger and I do think Glaze is doing a decent job at RT and he will get better; but he a big guy and maybe he be better at RG….

The Raiders really need a NT and a good DT….that probably the most important thing that need to be addressed in the off-season….the defense is actually costing us games as the raiders cannot stop the run; you gotta think; the raiders offense is putting tons of points on the board and yet they giving up tons of points….

I like Tre Tucker but he is another Denarius Moore, Louis Murphy type. Good player but easily replaced if another team has more disposable cap room to bring him in to round out their WR corps.

I agree with you. Keep building in the trenches. Puka Nacua was a 5th rounder, Amon-Ra St Brown was a 4th round pick.

[NoThanksSir]

Run D & Run Blocking are the two biggest issues for me, those need fixed before we talk about a WR i’d even add in pass rush above getting a receiver

As much as i’d love a Jeremiah Smith or Charlie Becker we need more help elsewhere & i’ve always been a fix the trenches guy

Although it is a weak IOL class but a strong IDL class at this point in time i’m hoping Will Echoles falls our way

With the cash we have i think i’d rather throw that at some IOL to have a little more experience in front of Mendoza when he takes over

I kind of lean towards this as well. If we could get ANYTHING out of Bech or Thornton that would free us up to target other areas that desperately need it. Nailor showed some signs of life against the Jets, we really need him to earn his paycheck too. Right now we're looking at around $56 mill in cap space but can easily get up to $70 mill if we desired. I'm not sure putting 20-25 of that aside for Tucker is the best use of money. If we don't get a WR with that first pick there will be a regression there, but the OL absolutely needs to be improved

[chucker]

I like Tucker, but we certainly need to consider options if he's $25 million a year.

I also think it's way too soon to peg any specific position for the first, second, third rounds. The positions we need to improve the most are WR, OL and IDL - in no specific order. There's no need to pigeonhole specific resources for any of those because there are going to be multiple ways to address them based on available value. We will have the resources available to address them all.

[SkullCrusher]

I like Tucker, but we certainly need to consider options if he's $25 million a year.

Yeah imo you have to earn it, not be paid on maximum potential.
He should be considered lucky to get 15 million currently, not all his fault you have to give him more chances.

[mranquales]

The thing about Tre Tucker you have to consider, is that he learned under Devante Adams on route-running. When he's not being pressed (which he is limited by his physique), he is excellent at getting open.

That being stated, Thorton, if given a chance, can become a deadlier version of Tre Tucker.

[Attyla]

The thing about Tre Tucker you have to consider, is that he learned under Devante Adams on route-running. When he's not being pressed (which he is limited by his physique), he is excellent at getting open.

That being stated, Thorton, if given a chance, can become a deadlier version of Tre Tucker.

He was given over 300 chances last year. 10 catches. And that was during a time when we had a QB who can sling it.

[MexicanHulk]

Fortunately, this draft is a good wide receiver and quarterback class and seeing a lot of teams are in need of a QB that should help push some prospects down the board for us. Removing Smith from the equation as he will doubtfully be in play here and taking into account only a handful of games left to be played here is what I discovered at least.

Becker
Coleman
Marsh
Coleman-Williams
Duff

Are all looking like they could be selected in round 1-2. Coleman-Williams is listed at 6’ so he could be a little shorter or taller but the other guys are all tall/big WR’s.

Wingo
Harris
Robinson
Young

All between 2-3.

Ditto for these four when it comes to height, Young being the shortest of the group.

Not sure which Harris you’re referencing here in the second tier. But IMO, either one is ranked too low. I’m assuming it’s Reed Harris.

Jackson Harris is massively underrated (Reed is a bit too). I’m liking him as much as Becker &, I love Becker. I won’t get into my analysis of these WR’s here but, I have Reed & Jackson Harris as firm 1st round graded WR talent. I will admit, I do need to watch more film on them cause I haven’t watched too much but, from I’ve seen, it was really damn good.

For me personally, atm:

WR

J. Smith (no chance for Raiders)
C. Becker (Not dropping to Raiders. He’s top 10)
J. Harris
Reed Harris
C. Coleman

KJ. Duff

N. Marsh
D. Alexander
O. Miller

Just a quick rating of guys I’ve seen a little bit of. Won’t really mention guys I dislike atm. But R. Williams, Wingo, Westco, W.Young are guys I’ll need to watch more film on. D. Robinson looks solid but, imo more of 3rd rounder type.

If the two Harris’ will go where they’re rated currently (2nd & 3rd), man, Raiders could trade down in the first, get an extra two 2’s or 2&3 to get those two. Then use the 1st &, other 2/3 on the trenches. I’d also go trenches in FA lol. That’d be in the running for best offense next year. Fernando would go off. & the trenches would be heavily invested in as well.

Anyway, I rambled a bit. Watch some Jackson Harris. He is smooth af with, speed, deception, clean routes, good hands, etc. Hopefully his stock doesn’t rise to where I think it will &, Raiders can get him late.

[heavyD]

I would rather keep Tucker than sign a UFA to replace him as free agency gets you guys like Nailor at $15 million a season. At least we know what we have in Tucker and it's a lot better than guys like Nailor.

[SkullCrusher]

The thing about Tre Tucker you have to consider, is that he learned under Devante Adams on route-running. When he's not being pressed (which he is limited by his physique), he is excellent at getting open.

That being stated, Thorton, if given a chance, can become a deadlier version of Tre Tucker.

"he is excellent at getting open."

Right and he has good hands and has speed.
So imo the biggest issue is simply opportunities and with the pass protection and the two headed beast at TE, he's probably doing as good as he can in this system.

[Attyla]

Would I keep Tucker? Sure, until someone better comes along. That is the thing, it is not a decision in a bubble. Dollars, other players, scheme, relationships, they all play into it. But I just want the best guy we can slot in there for a reasonable rate based on productivity.

[chucker]

One of the reasons to see Mendoza for a significant period this year is to see how he might gel with some of the receivers we already have on the roster. Maybe he'll have a great connection with Tucker, Bech, Nailor etc. That might inform some decisions in the offseason.

[NoThanksSir]

Would I keep Tucker? Sure, until someone better comes along. That is the thing, it is not a decision in a bubble. Dollars, other players, scheme, relationships, they all play into it. But I just want the best guy we can slot in there for a reasonable rate based on productivity.

This is the crux of the debate. What is the best bang for our buck? Tucker's possible compensation makes me feel uncomfortable. In a perfect world I'd like to keep him a bit longer while we draft a legitimate #1, but my theory is that he's playing himself out of Vegas.

This is also why I brought up Nacua or Pickens if they become legitimate options, because the extra 20 mill you have to spend gets you someone who can change the entire offense. I also think the timing of it would make sense while Mendoza is on his rookie deal. It's a deep WR draft so I'm confident we'll get a prospect somewhere but Idk if it's a foregone conclusion that it will be with the 1st.

[LayneStaley]

I like Tucker but his agent will sure as shit want more than Nailor is getting. Might be an issues tying that much money in a WR2 and WR3, which is what I believe those 2 players are. Maybe there is an out in the Nailor contract? Was all the guaranteed money front loaded?

[NoThanksSir]

I like Tucker but his agent will sure as shit want more than Nailor is getting. Might be an issues tying that much money in a WR2 and WR3, which is what I believe those 2 players are. Maybe there is an out in the Nailor contract? Was all the guaranteed money front loaded?

Nailor's route running has been pretty good, he just hasn't gotten the targets up until last week. I think his hands are still suspect, but I'm really hoping we get a better return on that contract in the 2nd half of the year. It would be huge for how we tackle the position in the offseason.

[Xramfan]

Like I said earlier, we have another half season of try outs for next year. Tre and Nailor have time to make their cases. Thorton apparently cant make the field with these guys yet. Maybe he battles it out with Cody White?