Tre Tucker & the WR Situation

[NoThanksSir]

There is a situation developing with Tre Tucker that is going under the radar. Tucker is a FA this offseason, and while he leaves a lot to be desired in a #1WR after Bowers, he unfortunately is our best WR. I'm not his biggest fan by any means, but even if we take a WR with our 1st pick in 2027 we're still in a precarious situation if he were to walk in free agency. Rookie receivers, especially those taken outside of the top 10, are rarely immediate contributors. I'm skeptical that a Rookie+Nailor/Bech/etc. will produce better results than what we have now. This is even more pressing of an issue because Mendoza will be playing next year, and that is a god awful situation for our prized QB prospect to be walking into. I think even if we assume that first pick is a receiver, we need to consider that another move at WR will need to accompany that selection. That could be re-signing Tucker, going after a more expensive #1, or seeking out a veteran bandaid while a rookie receiver develops. Of course there is option D, none of the above. Which I personally think would be a recipe for disaster, as the other talent on this roster hasn't shown enough potential.

2027 FA WRs

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These are the options other than Tucker in 2027. One important thing to note, is that the only players on the list younger than Tucker are Marvin Mims and George Pickens (By 4 days). My theory is that Tucker is going to have a lot more interest than any of us realize, and might be more coveted by another team than he is by us. Right now Tucker is on pace for a career year. If he continues his average of 59 yards a game, he can reasonably finish the season around 1K yards. While I feel like he leaves a lot to be desired as a player, if we compare him to someone who recently signed a contract with similar career numbers, what could we learn about Tucker's value?

Control Group: Tre Tucker

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Ex 1: Michael Wilson, Cardinals, 26 Yrs old

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Last offseason Wilson signed a 3yr, $75 mill extension at an APY of $25mill a year. His age and numbers are very similar to Tucker's. On top of that, both players are having very similar years in 2026, you could argue Tucker is playing quite a bit better. But let's assume Wilson's contract is a product of a poor Cardinal's org. Let's move on to another example.

Ex 2. Christian Watson, Packers, 27 Yrs old

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Watson also signed an extension last year, this one at an APY of $23mill a year. His career production is similar to Tucker, he seems to be a better red zone player than Tucker is.

Ex. 3 Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars, 30 Yrs old

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This last comp is more of a stretch, but valid because he was in the building and we moved on from him due to a perceived lack of value when it came to a contract extension. I would argue Jakobi Meyers's $20 mill APY is Tucker's floor. I was one of the loudest when it came to Jakobi not being worth what he was going to get paid, and I think the greater conclusion to make here is that mid level WR's are being paid handsomely across the board for very little on field production. Tucker is currently outperforming Meyers in 2026.

So now we have established the general range for Tucker's comps are between $20-25 mill a year. If we decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze, it's worth taking a look at more expensive options while we're at it.

Ex. JSN, Drake London, & Zay Flowers

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All three of these players recently signed contracts at the following APYs ($42.2, 35.2, 35). The main two high end receiver targets for this upcoming offseason (If they hit the open market) will be Nacua and Pickens.

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London and Zay aren't remotely on the same level as Nacua or Pickens. I think JSN is the rare example of a guy setting the market and then defending his position as the #1, as he's clearly still the best WR in the league. Those other guys set the floor at $35.2 mill, but both Nacua and Pickens will probably be more in line with JSN's $42.2. So a roughly $18 mill price difference from Tucker's group.


There are some guys in between those two groups who might be worth a look as budgetary options, especially those older than Tucker. But I thought this would be an interesting enough way to kick off the discussion by showing what the WR market is looking like right now, so that we could reasonably put into context what it will cost us to improve the position next year. Is simply drafting a WR a good enough plan in 2027? Do you want to keep Tucker? Or maybe sign someone else?

[Xramfan]

Tucker has a half a season left to make his case as to what his future is. Kubiak is more than impressed with his conditioning and work ethic but lets see how his game grows or doesnt grow over the next several games.

[ALLRAIDERWORLD21]

Tucker is open alot

[mranquales]

Only one on the list below is ever talked about as a top receiver. That’s chase.


2024 Marvin Harrison Jr. #4 Arizona Cardinals Ohio State
2024 Malik Nabers #6 New York Giants LSU
2024 Rome Odunze #9 Chicago Bears Washington
2022 Drake London #8 Atlanta Falcons
USC
2022 Garrett Wilson #10 New York Jets
Ohio State
2021 Ja'Marr Chase #5 Cincinnati Bengals LSU
2021 Jaylen Waddle #6 Miami Dolphins Alabama
2021 DeVonta Smith #10 Philadelphia Eagles

Are you kidding? DeVonta Smith? Drake London? Malik Nabers? The Raiders would kill to have those guys on our team right now.

Brock Bowers would break records if he had Drake London as X to take the CB1 away.

[Attyla]

On a team that features two tight ends, and already has a possession receiver in Bech, I don't see Becker as an obvious upgrade over Tucker. I think Tucker could have a better 2027 than him. Doesn't seem like a fit for us tbh. Coleman is interesting but I still think relying on guys like him or Becker to produce is a recipe for disaster. This is the value of retaining Tucker

Charlie Becker is the second best WR in the draft class. He is also very familiar with Mendoza. He is also a back shoulder ball hawk. That is Mendoza's bread and butter throw on the wing. Tucker is no where near what you get with Becker and he is not a slot. He has jets and gets separation. He will be a guy in the vein of Rice (not comparing the two other than style of play.) His vertical skills are great with a solid ability to hawk the ball. He has the frame, the speed and the skills. An actual comparison of skills is Cris Collinsworth at his peak but a bit faster and his grab ratio will be higher because he has better hands. He is a 1K receiver with the ability to catch 10 TDs per year.

[GoodTimeCharlie]

Charlie Becker is the second best WR in the draft class. He is also very familiar with Mendoza. He is also a back shoulder ball hawk. That is Mendoza's bread and butter throw on the wing. Tucker is no where near what you get with Becker and he is not a slot. He has jets and gets separation. He will be a guy in the vein of Rice (not comparing the two other than style of play.) His vertical skills are great with a solid ability to hawk the ball. He has the frame, the speed and the skills. An actual comparison of skills is Cris Collinsworth at his peak but a bit faster and his grab ratio will be higher because he has better hands. He is a 1K receiver with the ability to catch 10 TDs per year.

Nice OG comp. Haven’t thought of Collinsworth beyond his “pashh rush” commentator role in a long ass time.

Love Becker. Tucker, take it or leave it.

[GoodTimeCharlie]

Well that was fast…

[WNYRAIDER]

Tucker is open alot

...and has been all season.....he is just not being ignored as much as of late, probably to try and take some heat off of the running game....

[Opoponax50]

Ouch. I think he's okay, but the idea of paying him $25 million seemed ridiculous until getting a look at the comps (great job, No Sir, BTW).

He knows the system, can get open, and makes plays when they're there to be made. It makes more sense to pay him the market rate than to let him go and bring in someone new who'll have to learn everything he already knows.

[chucker]

Well that was fast…

It seems that the Raiders can now elevate White for games from the PS again. From what I can tell, the max of three game day activations is reset after they add him to the active roster and then cut him and add him to the PS. Of course that's assuming that he clears waivers. I don't know the Seahawks roster situation, but I wouldn't be shocked if they put in a claim.

[chucker]

Sorry, furthering the Cody White conversation is probably off topic since he's not really a consideration as truly being a future WR option. I wasn't paying attention to what thread I'm in. It probably doesn't merit a ton of discussion though.

[16 to 88]

Fortunately, this draft is a good wide receiver and quarterback class and seeing a lot of teams are in need of a QB that should help push some prospects down the board for us. Removing Smith from the equation as he will doubtfully be in play here and taking into account only a handful of games left to be played here is what I discovered at least.

Becker
Coleman
Marsh
Coleman-Williams
Duff

Are all looking like they could be selected in round 1-2. Coleman-Williams is listed at 6’ so he could be a little shorter or taller but the other guys are all tall/big WR’s.

Wingo
Harris
Robinson
Young

All between 2-3.

Ditto for these four when it comes to height, Young being the shortest of the group.

[SkullCrusher]

If we draft at around 12 like some projections have us at, Charlie Becker should be there, at worst Cam Coleman will be there. Both guys are able to impact games immediately.

Until they don't.

[CWood24]

Tucker to me is the least of our concerns going into the next off season. Fixing our run blocking is way way further up the line than Tucker. Fixing the rest of the defense is way way further up the line than Tucker. We will have some money available but we have been we are third in pass yards per game and Tre is averaging less than 60 yards per and a half a TD per game. This is not some guy we should throw a bunch of money at.

Run D & Run Blocking are the two biggest issues for me, those need fixed before we talk about a WR i’d even add in pass rush above getting a receiver

As much as i’d love a Jeremiah Smith or Charlie Becker we need more help elsewhere & i’ve always been a fix the trenches guy

Although it is a weak IOL class but a strong IDL class at this point in time i’m hoping Will Echoles falls our way

With the cash we have i think i’d rather throw that at some IOL to have a little more experience in front of Mendoza when he takes over

[SuperRaider]

The problem is that Tucker knows that if he become FA…he going to get paid by another team and he might be looking at a 15 to 20 million deal a season…so in order for the raiders to keep him; they are going to have to pay…..

At this moment; maybe offensive line will get better as the season progresses but the Raiders do need to invest in at least a guard and a tackle; Miller is not getting any younger and I do think Glaze is doing a decent job at RT and he will get better; but he a big guy and maybe he be better at RG….

The Raiders really need a NT and a good DT….that probably the most important thing that need to be addressed in the off-season….the defense is actually costing us games as the raiders cannot stop the run; you gotta think; the raiders offense is putting tons of points on the board and yet they giving up tons of points….

[Attyla]

Until they don't.

Of course there are risks with first round WRs and of course you don't know what you have until it arrives. But you keep swinging until you get it right.

This is why I question some of you all. It is like the biggest "duh" moment. You are going to get some of this stuff wrong. But that is why you keep looking at the tape, the entire tape. That means, game film and post game interviews and every bit you can find. It is about the player on the field and his maturity in his takes after the games. Build a profile of not just his skillset but also his character. Reduce the risk as much as you can....and that way, you do your best to remove "until they don't" and from what I have seen and heard, Charlie may be the best option surrounding the top two that should be there when we pick.